The issue i think is that you’re assuming Italy can get the NO. It can’t, unless the UK lets it by withdrawing from the Med.
Standard UK1 in the Med is sea zone 97 and sea zone 96. Assuming that UK has a ship left in sea zone 96, Italy does not have enough force without relying on lucky rolls (always a losing move!) to clear sea zones 93, 96, and 97 with 95%+ battles.
Even if the UK does not have a ship in sea zone 96, Italy still does not have enough to clear sea zone 93 and sea zone 97 with 95%+ battles. If you scramble to sea zone 97 on UK1, you can’t even do those two sea zones with a reasonable chance of winning.
In short, you’re counting an NO that Italy cannot realistically obtain as part of your math. Unless you get very lucky, you will not win one of the three battles you need to win for that NO. Even if you do, your losses will be devastating.
Marsh