Was the Philippines Invasion (1944) necessary?

LOL.

One way to think about this subject is in terms of bargaining power. An unconditional German surrender eliminates all German bargaining power. That would leave the Soviet Union and the Western democracies with all the bargaining power, and also in a position to collectively determine what to do with postwar Germany.

It’s also worth considering the level of negotiating determination, and negotiating objectives in the first place. Churchill was interested in a democratic postwar Europe. FDR’s interest in spreading democracy or resisting communism was much weaker than Churchill’s. On the other hand, a Soviet-American postwar alliance was very important to FDR. There is little reason to suppose that FDR would raise strong objections to the Soviets getting about half of Germany’s prewar land territory. (Which was about what they received under Yalta.)

If things went badly for Stalin at the negotiating table, he could always point out that the Red Army had the ability to take what it wanted by force. Between the power of that threat and FDR’s intrinsic lack of interest in stopping the spread of communism, I think it would be very unlikely that the Soviet Union would come away from an unconditional surrender with anything less than half of prewar Germany under its control.

@abworsham4

We’ll say that magic happens-the Japanese would have surrendered by regular bombing before the planned invasion, even without the atomic bomb. So I’ll say that five nuclear bombs would be ready for tactical use.

I think the Allies would have lost 1.5 million men, including naval losses, radiation poisoning after entering area attacked by atomic bombs, and regular land fighting. Countless more would have been wounded. This also includes Soviet losses from the planned Soviet invasion of Hokkaido.

The Japanese would have lost at least 12 million men killed, due to the enormous losses fighting, from the nuclear bomb, and the mass of Kamikaze attacks. This total includes PCFC losses. 1 million more might have died in guerrilla warfare after the war.

20 million would have been wounded, if not more.

Yeah - looking forward to watching that…

The Soviet didn’t have capability to invade Japan, they just had claims to Sakhalin Islands and possibly Korea which they lost in the 1905 war. The A-bomb created a huge vacuum for Stalin to mop up demoralized Kwangtung Army units in Manchukuo.

Okinawa could not be bypassed, a further invasion of Southern Japan could not take place without this logistical island. You need a good staging area and Okinawa and Iwo Jima are both necessary to that end.

Mainland China would not be good because Japan still had credible army units within reach, but had zero naval capabilities…so it was a safe choice to use the islands to stage invasion.

THE PHILLIPINES WAS A MUST!!!

Folks, the war wasn’t like Axis and Allies,  you didn’t know how many aircraft carriers and battleships your opponent had, or what weapons, or what secret technologies,  you fought as best as you knew, and you hit the enemy where you knew you could.

HOWEVER - Like Axis and Allies everything is done in Baby Steps.  Sure - Peleliu didn’t matter by the course to victory the allies took,  but say,  the Japanese invented the Jet in 42?  Or won a series of battles they lost?  Say they turned the American offensive around at Gaudalcanal?

You know, I can stand on a cardboard box and screw in a light bulb, but what if I slip? or the carboard crumples?  I might fall and break the light bulb… or my neck…  Better to get a REAL step ladder, or a cinder block, and place it on the ground - JUST TO MAKE SURE, I have a fail safe point to operate from.

That’s what the Phillipines was all about.  It was also a symbol to the world, of which side was winning… and it removed a POSSIBLE and SIGNIFICANT strategic asset from the enemy.  It had to be done.

There is a reason America didn’t just take the whole fleet to San Diego, load it with Marines, and set sail for Tokyo and for the win.  Everything is done one step at a time.

BUMP This is cool if you have not seen it yet.

George Tweed is buried at Eagle Point National Cemetery about 15 miles from my house and this time of the year the local press helps remind of his story. 2 links to his story.

http://www.guampedia.com/category/124-world-war-ii/entry/371-george-tweed

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Ray_Tweed