German bomber strategy - How to play and How to counter

ok guys, game is set up and ready to go:

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=35507.0

ABH, if you’re not familiar with pbf, you make your purchase and then combat movements, and if there are any scramble, intercept, and/or OOL (order of losses) questions, then you click the “Post Move Summary” button on the right (you can always do a “File/Post PBEM/PBF Gamesave…” at any time for any reason to have the game posted (saved) to the thread), and then follow up with your question(s) on the thread. If the turn is straightforward with obvious battles (i.e. casualty selection is obvious) and doesn’t require any input from your opponent, then you just complete the turn and post only at the end of your turn.

Have fun guys. I’ll be actively observing the game and giving my 2 cents here and there as required. I encourage others who’ve been involved in this discussion to also contribute as you see things.

@Zhukov44:

Interesting thread.

I recall that when Global was being playtested, it was put to LH that even though bombers had been reduced to 12$ since aa50, players still strongly preferred 10$ fighters, and nobody was SBRing because it was usually overly risky.  So the average SBR damage was raised from 3.5 to 5.5.

This might have been a bit too much.  Even though SBR remains dicey and risky, it is now almost always a solid play economically, provided there aren’t better targets or there aren’t too many interceptors. This means that as along as there are unbombed factories, bombers always have a target.

Another factor improving bombers are airbases.  Given their badass range, bombers can usually land on an airbase, which just increases their effectiveness all the more.

The main thing Allies can do to protect themselves is combine their defensive stacks–on land, at sea, and at airbases.

You omit to mention also that Fg interceptor was reduced to @1 also.
While StB was given @1 attack also.
And finally, after A&A50,
IC’s AA gun @1 was fired after interception phase and against StBs only,
instead of before the interception phase and against all StBs and escorting Fgs.

So many changes were made by Larry H. to entice SBR.

Personally, I believe he shouldn’t have lowered the Fighter interceptors to @1.
@2 could have work better to gives a little advantage to the defender.
I would even agree to give StB 2D6 damage instead of D6+2 (7 IPCs on average instead of 5.5 IPCs), if only agree to raise the Fighter defense to @2.
And this will not be unbalancing on a statistical POV.
If you wish to compare with OOB G40 SBR, you will see that OOB was still more advantageous than giving 2D6 damage against Fg Def@2.

Global 1940 SBR HRules SBR damage 1D6+2 / Interceptor Def @2

Global40 SBR HRules : 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2         / HR SBR = Damage 2D6 (avg 7 IPCs)
Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run                                                Sum: + 5.833 - 2 = +3.833 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HRules :1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC. damage/SBR run                                            Sum: + 5.556 - 5.333 = + 0.223 IPC. damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +3.704- 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR run                                            Sum: +4.260- 7.556 = - 3.296 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 7.408 - 8.667 = - 1.259 IPC damage/SBR run                                            Sum: + 8.519 - 8.667 = - 0.148 IPC damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR run                                          Sum: +11.112 - 10.667 = + 0.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 HR: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 7.639 - 5.333 = + 2.306 IPCs damage/SBR run                                            Sum: + 8.889 - 5.333 = + 3.556 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2          
Sum: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR run                                           Sum: +12.722 - 7.334 = + 5.388 IPCs damage/SBR run

@Baron:

To give everyone an opportunity to make his own mind about which SBR rules is his prefered one, and their impact and odds, here is a complete summary of all the calc results about various SBR rules with different combination of units:

OOB G40 SBR: damage: 1D6+2
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1
Sum: + 5.486 - 3.667 = + 1.819 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run

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Here is a link to NightBombing SBR various approach and stats:
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=33329.msg1280598#msg1280598

@Baron:

Comparison of this HR with Triple A SBR for 1942.2 and below with the OOB SBR optional escort and intercept rules of 1942 2nd edition

HRules with StB A0 and Fg A1 D1 : damage 1D6+2                   Triple A SBR for 1942.2: all planes A1 D1, damage 1D6

1 St Bomber doing SBR against no interceptor                                                                            1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run                                                                     Sum: +2.917 - 2 = +0.917 IPC damage/SBR run

1 St Bomber A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1                                                                    1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1
Sum: + 3.819 - 3.667 = + 0.152 IPC. damage/SBR run                                                              Sum: +3.69 - 3.667 = + 0.023 IPC damage/SBR run

1 St Bomber A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1                                                                   1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 3.183 - 5.056 = - 1.873 IPC. damage/SBR run                                                               Sum: + 2.025 - 5.056 = - 3.031 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 Fighter A1 and 1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1                    1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 6.123 - 5.334 = + 0.789 IPC damage/SBR run                                                              Sum: +6.155 - 5.33 = + 0.825 IPC damage/SBR run

2 St Bombers A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1                                                      2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 7.334 = + 0.305 IPCs damage/SBR run                                                             Sum: +8.195 - 7.334 = + 0.861 IPC damage/SBR run

1 Fighter A1 and 1 St Bomber A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1                                1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 6.250 - 3.667 = + 2.583 IPC damage/SBR run                                                              Sum: + 5.973 - 3.667 = + 2.306 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1                                             2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 8.403 - 5.666 = + 2.737 IPCs damage/SBR run                                                             Sum: +8.403 - 5.666 = + 2.737 IPCs damage/StB
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=34118.msg1311986#msg1311986

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OOB SBR rules for 1942.2: Fg and StB attack @1 first strike and Fg defend @2
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor damage: 1D6
Sum: + 2.917 - 2 = +0.917 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 first strike against 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 3.8 - 4.8 = - 1 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2 / damage 1D6
Sum: + 3.071 - 7.185 = - 4.114 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 6.018 - 7.555 = - 1.537 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +7.547 - 9.556 = - 2.009 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: + 5.973 - 5.159 = + 0.814 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: + 8.214 - 6.315 = + 1.899 IPCs damage/SBR run

There is many statistical tables in this thread to compare with various SBR system.
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=34118.msg1311386#msg1311386

1942.2 SBR House Rules :
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2
Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +3.704 - 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 7.554 - 7.564 = - 0.01 IPC damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: + 7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.48 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR run

Here is some maths evaluation to compare with other actual rules (provided in the above quote) :

Global40 SBR HRules : 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2  / damage 2D6
5/6 StB survived * 5.5 IPCs = 4.583 IPCs                                   5/6 StB survived * 7 IPCs = + 5.833 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs

Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run           Sum: + 5.833 - 2 = +3.833 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HRules :1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2

StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

1/62/66/6= 12/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 5.556%
1/64/61/6= 4/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 1.852%
1/64/65/6= 20/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 9.259%

5/62/66/6= 60/216 StB killed by Fg: 27.778%
5/64/61/6= 20/216 StB killed by AAA: 9.259%
5/64/65/6= 100/216 both survived: 46.296%

Results:
Bombard on IC 120/216= 55.556% * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 3.056 IPCs        / +7 IPCs = +3.889 IPCs
killing Fg 36/216= 16.667% *+10 IPC = + 1.667 IPC
StB killed 96/216= 44.444% *-12 IPCs = - 5.333 IPCs
Sum: + 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC. damage/SBR run                              Sum: + 5.556 - 5.333 = + 0.223 IPC. damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/620/366/6 = 120/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
1/616/361/6= 16/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/616/365/6 = 80/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

5/620/366/6 = 600/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
5/616/361/6 = 80/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/616/365/6 = 400/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 480/1296= 37.037% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.037 IPCs                    / +7 IPCs = +2.593 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 216/1296= 16.667% +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
1 StB killed: 816/1296= 62.963%-12 IPCs = - 7.556 IPCs

Sum: +3.704- 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR run                                  Sum: +4.260- 7.556 = - 3.296 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
1/364/366/6 = 24/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 2 Fgs
1/3616/361/6 = 16/7776 1 Fg killed and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs
1/3616/365/6 = 80/7776 1 Fg killed vs 2 Fgs
1/3616/361/6 = 16/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs
1/3616/365/6 = 80/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs

10/364/366/6 = 240/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg
10/3616/361/6 = 160/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
10/3616/365/6 = 800/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg
10/3616/361/6= 160/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
10/3616/365/6 = 800/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/364/366/6 = 600/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty
25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 5760/7776= 74.07%* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.074 IPCs             / +7 IPCs = +5.185 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 216/7776= 2.78%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 2160/7776= 27.78% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
Fg killed: 2880/7776= 37.04%-10 IPCs = - 3.704 IPCs
StB killed: 576/7776= 7.41%-12 IPCs = - 0.889 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 1440/7776=18.52%*-22 IPCs = - 4.074 IPCs

Sum: + 7.408 - 8.667 = - 1.259 IPC damage/SBR run                                  Sum: + 8.519 - 8.667 = - 0.148 IPC damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/364/3636/36 = 144/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs: 0.309%
1/3616/366/36 = 96/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.206%
1/3616/3630/36 = 480/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : 1.029%
1/3616/361/36 = 16/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.034%
1/3616/3610/36 = 160/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.343%
1/3616/3625/36 = 400/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 0.857%

10/364/3636/36 = 1440/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs 1 Fg: 3.086%
10/3616/366/36 = 960/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 2.058%
10/3616/3630/36 = 4800/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : 10.288%
10/3616/361/36= 160/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.343%
10/3616/3610/36= 1600/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.429%
10/3616/3625/36 = 4000/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 8.573%

25/364/3636/36 = 3600/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.716%
25/3616/366/36 = 2400/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.144%
25/3616/3630/36 = 12000/46656 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 25.72%
25/3616/361/36 = 400/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 0.857%
25/3616/3610/36 = 4000/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.573%
25/3616/3625/36 = 10000/46656 no casualty at all : 21.433%

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 14400/46656= 30.864% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 3.395 IPCs                     / +14 IPCs= + 4.321 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 23040/46656= 49.383% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.716 IPCs                       / +7 IPCs = + 3.457 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 1296/46656= 2.778%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 12960/46656= 27.778% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 9216/46656= 19.753%-24 IPCs = - 4.741 IPCs
1 StB killed: 23040/46656= 49.383%-12 IPCs = - 5.926 IPCs

Sum: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR run                                     Sum: +11.112 - 10.667 = + 0.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 HR: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/362/61/6= 22/1296 1 Fg killed and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/362/65/6= 110/1296 1 Fg killed vs 1 Fg
11/364/61/6= 44/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/364/65/6 = 220/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/362/61/6 = 50/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/362/65/6 = 250/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty
25/364/61/6 = 100/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/65/6 = 500/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.583 IPCs                               / +7 IPCs = + 5.833 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 396/1296 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
Fg killed: 360/1296 = 27.778%-10 IPCs = - 2.778 IPCs
StB killed: 144/1296 = 11.111%-12 IPCs = - 1.333 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 72/1296 = 5.556%-22 IPCs = - 1.222 IPCs

Sum: + 7.639 - 5.333 = + 2.306 IPCs damage/SBR run                                    Sum: + 8.889 - 5.333 = + 3.556 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/362/66/36 = 132/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/362/630/36 = 660/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
11/364/61/36 = 44/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/364/610/36 = 440/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/364/625/36 = 1100/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/362/66/36 = 300/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/362/630/36 = 1500/7776 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty
25/364/61/36 = 100/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/610/36 = 1000/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/625/36 = 2500/7776 no casualty at all

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 3600/7776= 46.296% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 5.093 IPCs                                 / +14 IPCs= + 6.481 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 3600/7776= 46.296% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.546 IPCs                                   / +7 IPCs = + 3.241 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 2332/7776= 29.999% +10 IPCs = + 3.00 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 576/7776= 7.407%-24 IPCs = - 1.778 IPCs
1 StB killed: 3600/7776= 46.296%*-12 IPCs = - 5.556 IPCs

Sum: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR run                                   Sum: +12.722 - 7.334 = + 5.388 IPCs damage/SBR run

From all the maths above we can pick this single one feature:
The OOB G40 SBR:

1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/SBR run

This means that 1 single Strategic Bomber can do SBR against as much as 2 Fighters ! and this keeps the odds even.
There would be the same odds of loosing IPCS than making damage to the enemy!

A pretty heavy advantage which can also explain why StBombers Spamming can worth the money.
This also show that even at this 1 StB (12 IPCs) : 2 Fgs (20 IPCs) ratio, it is not the best for the defender to make interception.
Interception is only the least worst options.
And sometimes, according to the number of STBs making the raids, it can be more profitable to stay on the ground and not intercept since you can easily lose more in Fighter units and damage than letting the damage maxed out on the IC…

I believe the G40 OOB SBR and interception rules is too much in favor of the attacker here.
This is because the OOB rules unrealistically (unhistorically) put Fighter at the same level against Bombers.
That can be part of the explanation why StBs buying can be very optimal.

I rather prefer something like this one, which seems more balanced.
It is a slightly modified version of 1942.2 SBR rules with upgraded damaged for STB.

1942.2 SBR House Rules :
1 StB doing SBR damage 1D6+2
1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 7.554 - 7.564 = - 0.01 IPC damage/SBR run

This is much even for cost investment against SBR:
1 StB and 1 Fg (22 IPCs) can be countered with 2 Fgs (20 IPCs).

So, from my last post, I can provide a simple fix to the issue of SBR being too much OP.

Apply the OOB 1942.2 escort and intercept rules while keeping the damage value of Strat Bombers and Tac Bombers.

Gives to all Fighters / Strat Bombers / Tac Bombers
Attack @1 First Strike.
Keep damage as G40 OOB: 1D6+2 for StB and 1D6 for TcB.
Fighter Defend @2.

Here is a discussion on the variant I showed in the last post.
1942.2 Strategic Bombing Raid SBR, Bombers and escorts, Interceptors vs triple A
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=34118.msg1311386#msg1311386

Each escorting Fighter have preemptive first strike A1 but also gives a combined arms effect to all escorted bombers, which get A1 preemptive roll.
It only needs 1 Fighter unit amongst the attacker SBR fleet to give all bombers their preemptive strike A1.
When all by themselves, bombers only get a regular attack @1.

That’s the small variants compared to OOB 1942.2 SBR rules, giving all StBs A1 First Strike.

1942.2 SBR HR #1 OOB + Higher damage for StB
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor damage: 1D6+2
Sum: 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/StB run

1 StB A1 first strike vs 1 Fg D2
Sum: 4.977 - 4.778 = + 0.199 IPC damage/StB

1 StB A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 3.874 - 7.185 = - 3.311 IPCs damage/SBR

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: 7.554 - 7.555 = - 0.001 IPC damage/StB

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +9.954 - 9.556 = - 0.002 IPC damage/StB

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.480 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 11.162 - 6.315 = + 4.847 IPCs damage/SBR run

1942.2 SBR House Rules #2 : StB A1 Dmg 1D6+2, gets First Strike if escorted by at least 1 Fighter
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2
Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +3.704 - 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 7.557 - 7.556 = +0.001 IPC damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: + 7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.48 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 OOB SBR:                                                 / 1942.2 SBR HR #1, OOB+ Higher damage: 1D6+2 /               1942.2 SBR HR #2
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run                                                      Same                                                              Same

1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 damage: 1D6+2                                1 StB A1 first strike vs 1 Fg D2                            /     1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 5.486 - 3.667 = + 1.819 IPCs damage/SBR run            +4.977 - 4.778 = + 0.199 IPC                          /   +4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPC damage/SBR run           +3.874 - 7.185 = - 3.311 IPCs damage/SBR run     / +3.704 - 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run           +7.554 - 7.555 = - 0.001 IPC damage/SBR run     /  +7.554 - 7.564 = - 0.01 IPC damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run       +9.954 - 9.556 = - 0.002 IPC damage/SBR run     /  +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run            +7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.480 IPCs damage/SBR run   /   +7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.48 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run           +11.162 - 6.315 = + 4.847 IPCs damage/SBR run    /   +10.639 - 7.334 = +3.304 IPCs damage/SBR run

1942.2 OOB SBR with higher damage for StB : 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor damage: 1D6+2
5/6 StB survived * 5.5 IPCs = 4.583 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs
Sum: 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/StB run

1 StB A1 first strike vs 1 Fg D2

StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

161= 6/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 3%
165= 30/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 14%

526= 60/216 StB killed by Fg: 28%
541= 20/216 StB killed by AAA: 9%
545= 100/216 both survived: 46%

Results:
Bombard on IC 130/216 = 60.185% * ((3+8 IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 3.310 IPCs
Killing Fg  36/216 = 16.667% *+10 IPC = + 1.667 IPC
StB killed 86/216 =39.815%  *-12 IPCs = - 4.778 IPCs
Sum: 4.977 - 4.778 = + 0.199 IPC damage/StB

1 StB A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2 / damage 1D6+2

StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

112/366= 72/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed
124/361= 24/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed
124/365= 120/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed

520/366= 600/1296 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
516/361= 80/1296 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
516/365= 400/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC 520/1296= 40.123% * ((3+8 IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.207 IPCs
killing 1 Fg 216/1296= 16.667% +10 IPC = + 1.667 IPC
StB killed 776/1296 = 59.877%-12 IPCs = - 7.185 IPCs
Sum: + 3.874 - 7.185 = - 3.311 IPCs damage/SBR

1 StB A1 first strike & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/3636/361/6 = 36/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .5%
1/3636/365/6 = 180/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 2.3%

10/3612/361/6 = 120/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.5%
10/3612/365/6 = 600/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 7.7%
10/3624/361/6= 240/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.1%
10/3624/365/6 = 1200/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 15.4%

25/364/366/6 = 600/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.7%
25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.2%
25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty : 25.7%
25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.2%
25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 no casualty at all : 25.7%

Results:
Bombard on IC: 5980/7776= 76.903% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +4.223 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 216/7776= 2.778%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 2160/7776= 27.778% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
Fg killed:  2600/7776 = 33.436%-10 IPCs = - 3.344 IPCs
StB killed: 676/7776= 8.693%-12 IPCs = - 1.043 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 1120/7776= 14.403%*-22 IPCs = - 3.169 IPCs

Sum: 7.557 - 7.556 = + 0.001 IPCs damage/StB

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/3636/361/36 = 36/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.077%
1/3636/3610/36 = 360/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.772%
1/3636/3625/36 = 900/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 1.929%

10/3612/366/36 = 720/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.543%
10/3612/3630/36 = 3600/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : 7.716%
10/3624/361/36= 240/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.514%
10/3624/3610/36= 2400/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 5.144%
10/3624/3625/36 = 6000/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 12.86%

25/364/3636/36 = 3600/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.716%
25/3616/366/36 = 2400/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.144%
25/3616/3630/36 = 12000/46656 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 25.72%
25/3616/361/36 = 400/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 0.857%
25/3616/3610/36 = 4000/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.573%
25/3616/3625/36 = 10000/46656 no casualty at all : 21.433%

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 16900/46656= 36.222% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 3.984 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 22360/46656= 47.925% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.636 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 2.778%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 27.778% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 7396/46656= 15.852%-24 IPCs = - 3.805 IPCs
1 StB killed: 22360/46656= 47.925%-12 IPCs = - 5.751 IPCs

Sum: +9.954 - 9.556 = - 0.002 IPCs damage/StB

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/366/61/6= 66/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/366/65/6 = 330/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/362/61/6 = 50/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/362/65/6 = 250/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty
25/364/61/6 = 100/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/65/6 = 500/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.583 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 396/1296 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
Fg killed: 300/1296 = 23.148%-10 IPCs = - 2.31 IPCs
StB killed: 216/1296 = 16.667%-12 IPCs = - 2 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 50/1296 = 3.858%-22 IPCs = - 0.849 IPCs

Sum: + 7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.480 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/366/61/36 = 66/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.849%
11/366/610/36 = 660/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 8.488%
11/366/625/36 = 1650/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 21.219%

25/362/66/36 = 300/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 3.858%
25/362/630/36 = 1500/7776 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 19.29%
25/364/61/36 = 100/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 1.286%
25/364/610/36 = 1000/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 12.86%
25/364/625/36 = 2500/7776 no casualty at all : 32.15%

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 4150/7776= 53.369% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 5.871 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 3160/7776= 40.638% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.235 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 2376/7776 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 466/7776= 5.993%-24 IPCs = - 1.438 IPCs
1 StB killed: 3160/7776= 40.638%*-12 IPCs = - 4.877 IPCs

Sum: + 11.162 - 6.315 = + 4.847 IPCs damage/SBR run

Those are some great stats….  :-o

I hate to be a buzzkill, but this thread started by discussing a German bomber strategy.  It somehow has degraded into the merits of SBR’s versus not SBR-ing.  Well, in my games, I rarely SBR with the bombers (if there is going to be no interception, then I may go for that when convenient, but it’s not a central part of the strategy).  The power of the bombers is numbers, not SBR’s.  If you want to SBR, you really don’t need 18 bombers…

I have hit the UK to clear it of all land/air units with the bombers – your SBR rule differences don’t change that dynamic.

I really, really like the idea of not being able to repair bases until the end of the turn (or during noncombat, or whatever).  But again, this isn’t a house rules thread. ;)

The power of the bombers is not by sacrificing them for petty things.  It’s the projection of threats across Europe.  And the more bombers that exist, the more threat that is projected…

@DizzKneeLand33:

Those are some great stats….  :-o

I hate to be a buzzkill, but this thread started by discussing a German bomber strategy.  It somehow has degraded into the merits of SBR’s versus not SBR-ing.  Well, in my games, I rarely SBR with the bombers (if there is going to be no interception, then I may go for that when convenient, but it’s not a central part of the strategy).  The power of the bombers is numbers, not SBR’s.  If you want to SBR, you really don’t need 18 bombers….

I have hit the UK to clear it of all land/air units with the bombers – your SBR rule differences don’t change that dynamic.
I really, really like the idea of not being able to repair bases until the end of the turn (or during noncombat, or whatever).  But again, this isn’t a house rules thread. ;)

The power of the bombers is not by sacrificing them for petty things.  It’s the projection of threats across Europe.  And the more bombers that exist, the more threat that is projected….

Sorry, I couldn’t restrain myself to get all the numbers side by side to have all comparison points.

According to your idea, do you mean the bombers stack is more a threat than an effective combat (or SBR, if anyone willing to do it) forces?
You trade bombers casualty at 12 IPCs against grounds casualty (3 to 6 IPCs).
But you cannot do this on every occasions.

As far as I understand, the bombers stack is preventing USA or Russia from moving within bombers range toward Central Europe.
This is a blocking strategy.
What happened if USA chose to sacrifice the Navy?
Does Germany will lose his bombers stack in the attack or not?

Does this strategy work as long as no Allies is willing to compromise a stack of his units as a necessary sacrifice?

If it is not the case and StBs stack is really so powerful to destroy a lot of units and lose only 1 or 2 bombers per attack,
does delaying the repair of Air Base to the Non-combat move Phase is really a way to hinder StBs Spams strategy (by creating some SZs or Territories unreachable)?

Or the only way to really hinder their offensive power is to reduced their attack value?

@Baron:

If it is not the case and StBs stack is really so powerful to destroy a lot of units and lose only 1 or 2 bombers per attack,
does delaying the repair of Air Base to the Non-combat move Phase is really a way to hinder StBs Spams strategy (by creating some SZs or Territories unreachable)?

Or the only way to really hinder their offensive power is to reduced their attack value?

If you change the attack value or anything to do with SBR you make a change that will be in the game even if the axis side wants to do some strategy other than this mega-bomber strategy.

If you change when facilities are repaired to the start of Noncombat phase, that house rule is very subtle and probably has really no effect at all in 99% of the games that the axis side does not build a million bombers.  So that house rule targets this bug in the game and leaves everything else alone.

Sorry for discussing this house rule again (BTW I revived that old thread in House Rules).

@variance:

@Baron:

Or the only way to really hinder their offensive power is to reduced their attack value?

**If you change the attack value or anything to do with SBR you make a change that will be in the game even if the axis side wants to do some strategy other than this mega-bomber strategy. **

You can take a look at this Triple A files to see what this can means:
@barney:

Well wasn’t able to get all of it Baron but here’s a triplea xml that has bombers A3 +1 when paired with fighter(1:1), TACs A4 D3 gives +1 to tanks D when paired 1:1. Fighter escort and interceptors A/D 2.

Wasn’t able to get the +1 when no enemy air is present, but I don’t think that will mess things up too much. Most ships have either ACs or ABs to protect them. One fighter shutting down a slew of bmbrs would be the same as one dstry shutting down subs. Not being able to hit a lone blocker or sub killer sets them back as well as solo infrantry attacks but we’ll just play the historical strats weren’t good at hitting ships anyway. :) We probably won’t see many SBRs without fighter escort but that’s the way it goes. Their main advantage is still their range and offense can be boosted with a ftr.

TACs get the 4 hit plus the boost to the tanks D. So they still have a connection. Not sure how that will play out but I think it will be OK. Just have to play it and see.

Anyway gonna start a playtest right now.

If you’re not familiar with adding XMLs to triplea: open triplea, open maps, open WW II Global zip, put the objectives there then open games and put the xml there.

@Baron:

@DizzKneeLand33:

Those are some great stats….  :-o

I hate to be a buzzkill, but this thread started by discussing a German bomber strategy.  It somehow has degraded into the merits of SBR’s versus not SBR-ing.  Well, in my games, I rarely SBR with the bombers (if there is going to be no interception, then I may go for that when convenient, but it’s not a central part of the strategy).  The power of the bombers is numbers, not SBR’s.  If you want to SBR, you really don’t need 18 bombers….

I have hit the UK to clear it of all land/air units with the bombers – your SBR rule differences don’t change that dynamic.
I really, really like the idea of not being able to repair bases until the end of the turn (or during noncombat, or whatever).  But again, this isn’t a house rules thread. ;)

The power of the bombers is not by sacrificing them for petty things.  It’s the projection of threats across Europe.  And the more bombers that exist, the more threat that is projected….

Sorry, I couldn’t restrain myself to get all the numbers side by side to have all comparison points.

According to your idea, do you mean the bombers stack is the more a threat than an effective combat (or SBR, if anyone willing to do it) forces?
You trade bombers casualty at 12 IPCs against grounds casualty (3 to 6 IPCs).
But you cannot do this on every occasions.

As far as I understand, the bombers stack is preventing USA or Russia from moving with bombers range toward Central Europe.
This is a blocking strategy.
What happened if USA chose to sacrifice the Navy?
Does Germany will lose his bombers stack in the attack or not?

Does this strategy work as long as no Allies is willing to compromise a stack of his units as a necessary sacrifice?

---

If it is not the case and StBs stack is really so powerful to destroy a lot of units and lose only 1 or 2 bombers per attack,
does delaying the repair of Air Base to the Non-combat move Phase is really a way to hinder StBs Spams strategy (by creating some SZs or Territories unreachable)?

Or the only way to really hinder their offensive power is to reduced their attack value?

I believe someone pointed out earlier in the thread that the bomber stack seemed threatening until Germany had to commit it anywhere. As soon as it is used in combat, the stack decreases in size and usually has to land somewhere where it will be of less use than it was originally.

Basically, its goal is to intimidate the Allies into losing. I have yet to test a game where the Allies risk losing heavily in order to entice the bombers out, but such a strategy will go one of two ways:

1. The Bomber stack threat is greatly decreased and the Allies can now proceed to combat the Axis on even ground.
2. The Allied losses are so heavy they can’t recover, and Axis wins.

Also, has anyone tried launching two allied invasion fleets simultaneously? This would force the Germans to either let one through the bombers, or split the stack. In either case, the bombers would face losses. The main concern is the invasion fleets not having enough units to capture the territory they land in, but with Germany spending so much on Bombers, I’d expect their land defenses to be weaker than usual.

@amanntai:

@Baron:

@DizzKneeLand33:

Those are some great stats….  :-o

I hate to be a buzzkill, but this thread started by discussing a German bomber strategy.  It somehow has degraded into the merits of SBR’s versus not SBR-ing.  Well, in my games, I rarely SBR with the bombers (if there is going to be no interception, then I may go for that when convenient, but it’s not a central part of the strategy).  The power of the bombers is numbers, not SBR’s.  If you want to SBR, you really don’t need 18 bombers….

I have hit the UK to clear it of all land/air units with the bombers – your SBR rule differences don’t change that dynamic.
I really, really like the idea of not being able to repair bases until the end of the turn (or during noncombat, or whatever).  But again, this isn’t a house rules thread. ;)

The power of the bombers is not by sacrificing them for petty things.  It’s the projection of threats across Europe.  And the more bombers that exist, the more threat that is projected….

Sorry, I couldn’t restrain myself to get all the numbers side by side to have all comparison points.

According to your idea, do you mean the bombers stack is the more a threat than an effective combat (or SBR, if anyone willing to do it) forces?
You trade bombers casualty at 12 IPCs against grounds casualty (3 to 6 IPCs).
But you cannot do this on every occasions.

As far as I understand, the bombers stack is preventing USA or Russia from moving with bombers range toward Central Europe.
This is a blocking strategy.
What happened if USA chose to sacrifice the Navy?
Does Germany will lose his bombers stack in the attack or not?

Does this strategy work as long as no Allies is willing to compromise a stack of his units as a necessary sacrifice?

---

If it is not the case and StBs stack is really so powerful to destroy a lot of units and lose only 1 or 2 bombers per attack,
does delaying the repair of Air Base to the Non-combat move Phase is really a way to hinder StBs Spams strategy (by creating some SZs or Territories unreachable)?

Or the only way to really hinder their offensive power is to reduced their attack value?

I believe someone pointed out earlier in the thread that the bomber stack seemed threatening until Germany had to commit it anywhere. As soon as it is used in combat, the stack decreases in size and usually has to land somewhere where it will be of less use than it was originally.

Basically, its goal is to intimidate the Allies into losing. I have yet to test a game where the Allies risk losing heavily in order to entice the bombers out, but such a strategy will go one of two ways:

1. The Bomber stack threat is greatly decreased and the Allies can now proceed to combat the Axis on even ground.
2. The Allied losses are so heavy they can’t recover, and Axis wins.

Also, has anyone tried launching two allied invasion fleets simultaneously? This would force the Germans to either let one through the bombers, or split the stack. In either case, the bombers would face losses. The main concern is the invasion fleets not having enough units to capture the territory they land in, but with Germany spending so much on Bombers, I’d expect their land defenses to be weaker than usual.

Amanti, you are on to the solution.

The allies have to play “at a statistical loss” so to speak.  Too many people are used to living off the battle calculator, and only making moves that are 60% survival or stronger.

Against the bomber threat the allies must throw their units out in such a way that they have a 35% or better chance of surviving.  The bombers see the target, and can choose to engage - but it’s costly.  It costs the allies too, but what they allied DON’t lose - is schedule.  Schedule being how fast they can get their units to the objectvies.

The other trick I find is to try to create situations that ONLY the bombers can reach, the Gibraltar Seazones tend to have this as a reoccurring event.  Double down on those types of moves, and throw as many 'Option" attacks as you can out there.  The Axis will have to choose one, or none.

The minute the axis start taking on those stacks, their power diminishes.

Also - I am toying with heavy air builds with USA.  2 bombers a turn.  It’s a beaut so far.

Baron had some interesting math in another thread: I believe it was a full carrier versus 3 attacking bombers. The bombers had only a 24.3% chance of survival! In a battle between 24 bombers and 8 full carriers, the bombers had only a 7% chance of surviving!

If the Allied match the Axis bombers 1 IPC for 1 IPC with carriers, There is no way the German bomber stack can wipe out the Allied fleet. Of course, they also need transports and land units, which means they can’t build all carriers. But just something to consider. I don’t think fleets are going to be demolished by bombers with very few Axis losses.

@amanntai:

In a battle between 24 bombers and 8 full carriers, the bombers had only a 7% chance of surviving!

This will be around 25% if the allies choose to lose fighters before tipped carriers, and about 6 of those carriers will live.  Not such a bad deal if they are next to a naval base like at Gibraltar (or Iceland or Suriname if you build one).

Sure, 8 loaded carriers would be sufficient to prevent the Germans from launching a bomber raid against the Allied navy.  Keep in mind that such a build requires 4 full turns of US spending in the Atlantic plus a turn or two for moving the fleet into position.  Time is on the German side in Dark Skies.  Once the Germans reach the oilfields, their income will start matching that of the US.  Also consider that Germany has quite a bit of flexibility.  The bombers can be used to destroy Russia, navies, London, and supporting raids on territories with medium-sized stacks of troops.

In my last game, the US tried a KGF strategy with a very large navy off the coast of Gibraltar on round 3.  The Germans mostly ignored it.  From the base in Paris, the bombers could limit the options of the Allied navy and also force Russia to retreat back towards Moscow.  Meanwhile, Japan was about to capture India and it seemed inevitable for a total victory on J7-J8.

@amanntai:

Baron had some interesting math in another thread: I believe it was a full carrier versus 3 attacking bombers. The bombers had only a 24.3% chance of survival! In a battle between 24 bombers and 8 full carriers, the bombers had only a 7% chance of surviving!

If the Allied match the Axis bombers 1 IPC for 1 IPC with carriers, There is no way the German bomber stack can wipe out the Allied fleet. Of course, they also need transports and land units, which means they can’t build all carriers. But just something to consider. I don’t think fleets are going to be demolished by bombers with very few Axis losses.

Theoretically, bombers are not unbalanced vrs. fleet.

What’s making them unbalanced is the combination of deterring Allied navy, bombing raids, killer range, overwelming superiority in land trades, and utility in major land battles.  All that together makes them formidable.

Changing SBR damage and/or interceptor rules is probably the way to go.  Until then…higher bids.  The higher the bid the less money Axis will be able to make and the less bombers they can buy.

Perfectly stated, Zhukov.

I would like to share some thoughts about that strategy. I encountered it just this weekend, and I lost playing the Allies. Nevertheless, I do not think it is overpowered. Why?

Let’s start with what the strategy is good in:
-Germany is obviously flexible
-Germany can deny any small naval force to approach Europe
-Germany can defeat even a huge drop force when you have like ten mech inf stationed in Western Germany
Therefore, I do think it is a rather defensive strategy. It has obvious weaknesses when attacking Russia:

As pointed out by LeClerc (who is, as always, a good analyzer), you cannot attack Russia without ground forces, and German ground forces cannot approach Russia if you have not bought additional units. Russia buys mostly inf and art and waits for the German to come one step too close. You can of course sit and wait until your economic gains from the Russian territory and the bombing raids on Moscow allow for a save approach, but: I do think there are other strategies to allow Germany to defeat Russia late in the game – that is not overpowered.

Moreover, Anit aircraft comes in handy: assume you have Bombers/3 AA units. They fire three times at 1, thus, are better than inf, and they hit a plane, not a mech inf. They only shoot once, but all inf I could buy instead would be killed in the first round and, thus, also only shoot once.

So, Russia can hold out for some time. In our game, we tried to invade Europe and had a huge force assembled to counter the German bombers. That force could participate in the attack, so we were able to easily take Rome. The problem I see is that if you cannot achieve more than taking out Italy before Moscow falls, the German player has enough to counter US and GB if he focusses completely on them. But you could either be more successful with your D-Day, or you just send everything to Japan. So: not overpowered.

I should add that we do not play with victory cities or bids.

@Zhukov44:

@amanntai:

Baron had some interesting math in another thread: I believe it was a full carrier versus 3 attacking bombers. The bombers had only a 24.3% chance of survival! In a battle between 24 bombers and 8 full carriers, the bombers had only a 7% chance of surviving!

If the Allied match the Axis bombers 1 IPC for 1 IPC with carriers, There is no way the German bomber stack can wipe out the Allied fleet. Of course, they also need transports and land units, which means they can’t build all carriers. But just something to consider. I don’t think fleets are going to be demolished by bombers with very few Axis losses.

Theoretically, bombers are not unbalanced vrs. fleet.

What’s making them unbalanced is the combination of deterring Allied navy, bombing raids, killer range, overwelming superiority in land trades, and utility in major land battles.  All that together makes them formidable.

Changing SBR damage and/or interceptor rules is probably the way to go.  Until then…higher bids.  The higher the bid the less money Axis will be able to make and the less bombers they can buy.

But as DizzKneeLand pointed out, SBR isn’t even a part of the strategy! Changing SBR damage and interceptor rules will have absolutely no effect on Dark Skies.

How can such a strategy deter Allied Navy, if the Navy will inflict heavy losses on the bombers? How can Germany win in Russia if they spent less on land units and more on bombers that died in the Atlantic?

@Arthur:

Sure, 8 loaded carriers would be sufficient to prevent the Germans from launching a bomber raid against the Allied navy.  Keep in mind that such a build requires 4 full turns of US spending in the Atlantic plus a turn or two for moving the fleet into position.  Time is on the German side in Dark Skies.  Once the Germans reach the oilfields, their income will start matching that of the US.  Also consider that Germany has quite a bit of flexibility.  The bombers can be used to destroy Russia, navies, London, and supporting raids on territories with medium-sized stacks of troops.

In my last game, the US tried a KGF strategy with a very large navy off the coast of Gibraltar on round 3.  The Germans mostly ignored it.  From the base in Paris, the bombers could limit the options of the Allied navy and also force Russia to retreat back towards Moscow.  Meanwhile, Japan was about to capture India and it seemed inevitable for a total victory on J7-J8.

1. As has been pointed out by myself and others, what the Germans can use the bombers for is not as important as what they do use it for. If the Allies don’t build a fleet because they are scared of Bombers, of course they will lose! The Allies in this strategy must force Germany to make a choice. As soon as Germany commits the bombers anywhere, flexibility and strength decreases. German bombers can destroy the Allied fleet or kill Russia, but it can’t do both at the same time.

2. The US doesn’t need 8 carriers. That provides only a 7% survival for 24 bombers, obviously this is overkill. I haven’t done the math, but I’m pretty sure the US could get by with a smaller fleet.

Thanks for the vote of confidence, Shaniana :-)!

I see a lot of valid pros and cons for/against this strategy by a lot of people here. Not that I know much about this strategy, but many considerations I see here make sense. Both in favor or against the DS strategy.

@Zhukov44:

Theoretically, bombers are not unbalanced vrs. fleet.

**What’s making them unbalanced is the combination of deterring Allied navy, bombing raids, killer range, overwhelming superiority in land trades, and utility in major land battles.  All that together makes them formidable.  **

This provides a good summary of the tactical advantage of Strategic Bombers stack, IMO.