Hall of Shame - tales of the worst dice ever

Battle in Kiangsu
Americans attack with 2 bombers, 9 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber
Japanese defend with 1 factory_minor, 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 5 tactical_bombers
Americans roll dice for 2 bombers, 9 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber in Kiangsu, round 2 : 2/12 hits, 6.50 expected hits
Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 5 tactical_bombers in Kiangsu, round 2 : 6/8 hits, 4.17 expected hits
1 tactical_bomber owned by the Japanese, 1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 6 fighters owned by the Americans lost in Kiangsu
Americans roll dice for 2 bombers, 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber in Kiangsu, round 3 : 1/6 hits, 3.50 expected hits
Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers in Kiangsu, round 3 : 5/6 hits, 3.33 expected hits
1 tactical_bomber owned by the Japanese, 1 tactical_bomber owned by the Americans, 2 fighters owned by the Americans and 2 bombers owned by the Americans lost in Kiangsu
1 fighter owned by the Americans retreated
Japanese win with 2 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is -94
Casualties for Americans: 2 bombers, 8 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber
Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers

Average dice results in 100% odds, plus-25 TUV, 6.75/12 units remaining. Reality: US retreats with 1/12 aircraft surviving, leaving 5/8 defenders still alive, minus-94 TUV. Entire Allied fleet is forced to flee SZ6 and abandon korea factory. Awful!
https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/36209/l21-freh-v-colt45554-l-16-bm/146?page=6

Statistically, this one wasn’t as unlikely as some dice reported here … but it was more than a 100 IPC swing from what would have been the average result. The odds of the battle going so bad were somewhere between 1% and 2%. It was directly responsible for Tokyo being sacked the next turn and cost me the game.

Battle in 17 Sea Zone
Japanese attack with 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 5 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers
Americans defend with 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 2 fighters, 1 submarine and 2 transports
Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 17 Sea Zone, round 1 : 0/1 hits
Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in 17 Sea Zone, round 1 : 1/1 hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 5 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers in 17 Sea Zone, round 1 : 4/10 hits
Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Americans and 1 carrier owned by the Americans
Americans roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 2 fighters and 2 transports in 17 Sea Zone, round 1 : 5/8 hits
1 submarine owned by the Americans , 1 destroyer owned by the Americans , 1 cruiser owned by the Japanese , 1 destroyer owned by the Japanese , 3 fighters owned by the Japanese and 1 submarine owned by the Japanese lost in 17 Sea Zone
Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers in 17 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/5 hits
Americans roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 2 transports in 17 Sea Zone, round 2 : 5/7 hits
1 destroyer owned by the Americans , 3 tactical_bombers owned by the Japanese and 2 fighters owned by the Japanese lost in 17 Sea Zone
Americans win, with 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 2 fighters and 2 transports remaining. Battle score for attacker is -87
Casualties for Japanese: 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 5 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers
Casualties for Americans: 2 destroyers and 1 submarine
2 fighters owned by the Americans forced to land in Iwo Jima

https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/20035/13l-g40-wheatbeer-axis-vs-cow-allies-10/53?page=3

(also, I obviously should have retreated before the last round of combat … I clearly was engaged in magical thinking that the dice would turn around)

My good friend Ryley attacked my Japanese fleet, here it is before 1 hit with kamikaze:

Here are the remaining Japanese after the battle:

That’s right, 0 Jap casualties, complete US fleet annhilation.

@shadowhawk said in Hall of Shame - tales of the worst dice ever:

g japan 1 inf 1 art
attacking 3 chinese inf + 1 air
Normal chance of winning 96%
End result japan 1inf 1 art left
china retreated with 1 air.

Wow, that is so lucky that the Chinese still had the fighter remaining. Most of my battles would end in two rounds with no remaining Allied forces. Isn’t it crazy how 4% outcomes seem to happen a majority of times?

@nixonium said in Hall of Shame - tales of the worst dice ever:

That’s right, 0 Jap casualties, complete US fleet annhilation.

Well, he attacked 26 defending Japanese units (including the scramble) with 14 US units. On average he should have gotten 5.5 hits and actually got 4.

Of course, if Japan used its kamikazes effectively he took out a destroyer and a cruiser (on average), which would reduce the expected hits to about 4.5.

I’m not sure that counts as worst dice ever. It’s just a bad attack…

Marsh

I have twice within a period of two weeks attacked Japanese-held Yunnan (containing three units) with six Chinese infantry and the fighter (99% according to the simulator) and come away with almost complete destruction of the Chinese infantry stack. (Incidentally, it takes I believe 9 attacking infantry to turn that battle into a 100% battle for China).

That’s pretty horrible and probably the worst dice I’ve ever personally experienced.

Marsh

I will share a tough luck experience for my buddy whom I was playing against. He was attempting Sea Lion on G3 with 7 fighters, 5 TB, 2 SB, a Battleship, Crusier and 4 TTs, carrying 4 infantry and 4 Tanks. I had 5 AAA, 4 Fighters, 1 tank, 1 TB and 18 infantry. The odds were slightly in my favor, but the first wave of rolls didn’t help his chances. I had only 1 hit on 14 tries with my AA and he hit with both ships, but then he only got only 6 hits with the rest of his attack. On my first roll with my 18 infantry I got 10 hits! We were both shocked. I then got another 5 hits with the rest so 15 defensive hits to 8 offensive. Statistically it should never have happened. I wiped his ground forces and more than half of his Luftwaffe and left him badly crippled. The US and Russians were entering the next round so it was pretty much a death blow.

What he should have done (but I never pointed it out to him) was land in Scotland so he could essentially double his landing force and buy a few more bombers. Even with me getting an extra build to defend, I think he would have probably had a 75-80% chance of success.

Edit - I ran the numbers and he would have had an 80% chance of winning if I buy all infantry and 92% chance of winning if I buy 4 infantry a tank and a fighter and he buys 3 more bombers.

@jscam74 Funny how those 0% likely results happen a lot! The Dice Goddess is a fickle one.

Yah ain’t seen nothing yet though.

Being that the whole “Italians are incompetent” joke goes around, well its reality.

Was doing well in North Africa with German support as Italy ready to invade Egypt against a moderately sized British force but one that wouldn’t stand a chance to what I had to bring.

Began the battle, right off the bat missing EVERY landing shot from my cruisers and battleship, and in the end getting wiped by the British. Like, the dice rolling was so bad it wasn’t even a joke at that point and here I was waiting for Larry Harris to tell me “Its just a a prank bro.”

This was actually in Axis and Allies Classic (MB / 1980s) so I do not know if I may post this here but:

Battle for Moscow

Six german planes
AA gun fired (one hit per attacking airplane)

Result:

4 ones = 4 planes hit

Before…

After…

Battle in Eastern Persia
British attack with 1 armour, 2 bombers, 14 fighters, 2 infantry and 5 mech_infantrys
Germans defend with 2 armour and 15 mech_infantrys
British roll dice for 1 armour, 2 bombers, 14 fighters, 2 infantry and 5 mech_infantrys in Eastern Persia, round 2 : 7/24 hits, 10.00 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 15 mech_infantrys in Eastern Persia, round 2 : 11/17 hits, 6.00 expected hits
5 mech_infantrys owned by the British, 7 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans, 4 fighters owned by the British and 2 infantry owned by the British lost in Eastern Persia
British roll dice for 1 armour, 2 bombers and 10 fighters in Eastern Persia, round 3 : 4/13 hits, 6.83 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 8 mech_infantrys in Eastern Persia, round 3 : 7/10 hits, 3.67 expected hits
4 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans, 6 fighters owned by the British and 1 armour owned by the British lost in Eastern Persia
British roll dice for 2 bombers and 4 fighters in Eastern Persia, round 4 : 5/6 hits, 3.33 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 4 mech_infantrys in Eastern Persia, round 4 : 3/6 hits, 2.33 expected hits
1 armour owned by the Germans, 2 bombers owned by the British, 4 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans and 1 fighter owned by the British lost in Eastern Persia
British roll dice for 3 fighters in Eastern Persia, round 5 : 0/3 hits, 1.50 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Eastern Persia, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
1 fighter owned by the British lost in Eastern Persia
British roll dice for 2 fighters in Eastern Persia, round 6 : 2/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Eastern Persia, round 6 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
1 armour owned by the Germans and 1 fighter owned by the British lost in Eastern Persia
British win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is -114
Casualties for British: 1 armour, 2 bombers, 13 fighters, 2 infantry and 5 mech_infantrys
Casualties for Germans: 2 armour and 15 mech_infantrys

What should have been +27 resulted in a -114, nuts! @Giallo

@windowwasher damn, thats a good one

What should have been an 100% outcome ended in a 50/50 situation.

Either you hit or not.

Examples like all these should make us aware while playing, that every single battle could go south and that we have to put it at least in our considerations.

And have a solid Backup plan when things are not going as accordingly.

Ticap

I thought I had a good story and then I read some others and realized this is nothing. I’ve had crazy odds ofc but this one really hurt me. First game trying out the cruisers with 2 AA shots and after a very successful Taranto raid and not much of a Italian counter, the UK is set to clear out the med round 2. But both of the cruisers AA shot a hit leaving the UK with no planes or a single fighter in the med with Germany poised to do a Sealion where there’s only 2 fighters in the UK. This is why you buy heavy for London UK1. The Allies lost pretty bad because Italy took over the Med quite well and Germany easily took London G3.

@windowwasher UK was too air heavy, which meant a bad dice roll would adversely affect UK more than Germ, as UK had much more TUV at risk. UK only had 8 ground units, so a modestly favorable G dice roll could have destroyed all its ground units on the first dice roll. Why risk expensive planes against cheap mech after that first round? If you wanted to take the territory, it would require taking a plane as a hit to save one ground unit. Without knowing the circumstances, I’d still say cut your losses. Your fighters were attacking at 3 against mech defending at 2. If you retreated, your fighters would defend at 4 and mech attack at 1. G might have planes or other units for offense that might offset that somewhat, but cut your losses.