China and North Korea vs. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan

@Imperious:

China could mass its Navy

Funnest thing i heard in years. “mass” what navy, they got jack. China is only a land power, not air or sea and why? Check out their so called navy. Lobster boats, converted 1980’s soviet CV, floating wrecks of garbage and i do mean garbage. They probably do double duty for trash service.

Because they got the worlds biggest manpower reserves. And that’s why we could never invade China.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Chinese_Navy_ships

The five-minute fleet:

The Chinese navy currently operates approximately 138 major combat vessels, consisting of 78 major surface combatants (1 aircraft carrier, 3 assault ships, 26 destroyers & 48 frigates), at least 9 nuclear submarines and 51 conventional submarines. All ships and submarines currently in commission with the Chinese Navy were built in China, with the exception of 4 Sovremenny class destroyers and 12 Kilo class submarines which were imported from Russia, and the Admiral Kuznetsov class aircraft carrier Liaoning (ex-Varyag) which was 70% complete when it was bought from the Ukraine.

I agree that their surface Navy would not last long, but they do not have to.  They use a lot of old Soviet equipment bristling with weapons- all they have to do is get a shot off (Or, hundreds of shots in one volley) to be a threat.  They do have anti-ship missiles as well (remains to be seen how effective they are). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21

Their diesel submarines could just sit on station around Taiwan and fire pot shots at anything that goes by.  Trust me when I tell you that US Nuclear Submarines have a hard time finding any quiet diesel boat, especially Kilos.  I served on the USS Greeneville out of Pearl Harbor from 2005-2009 and we were always beaten by Diesel Subs in exercises.  We never ‘played’ with China during those, but we have run up against Kilos.  Chinese nuclear submarines are indeed a joke- we can hear them miles and miles away.

Would China’s fleet be beaten quickly?  Yes, in a matter of weeks- our ships have to get there.  We don’t have all that many on station in the West Pacific.  (Again, 1 carrier battle group and 3-5 Submarines).

They can however gain local sea superiority (especially with shore based aircraft) to invade Taiwan.

Any war with China would end very bad for all involved.  No one would want to use Nuclear weapons, but the side on the losing end would come under more and more pressure to do so.  Who knows what North Korea will do if they are getting beaten.

Thank you for that “insider” knowledge BJCard.
I liked reading your thoughts.

Hear hear.  A good buddy of mine spent 21 years in the RCN, retired, then got bored and rejoined.  The Canadian navy size wise is pretty small, but they do excel in anti-sub warfare and did well with subs in war games against the USN with our old diesels.  BJCard is very right in that diesel subs are very quiet compared to nuclear subs, US nuclear subs are fairly quiet for nukes but nothing is as quiet as not having to run circulating pumps for a nuclear reactor like batteries and perhaps fuel cells.

Remember North Korea managed to sink a modern anti-sub ship with a very old diesel sub.  Yes it was a surprise attack but it still occurred.

They can however gain local sea superiority (especially with shore based aircraft) to invade Taiwan.

As was mentioned, the DF-21 is specifically designed to keep the US carrier groups well away from where they would be most effective.

Every always plans and excels at fighting the last war.  China is being forced to be innovative, lucky for us, innovation is a hallmark of the West.  Lets hope China does not get too innovative in the field of modern warfare.

A mass produced swarm of cheap networked robotic weapons and sensors will be the future of warfare.  Gee, I wonder who is the master of producing cheap electronics?

If this website had existed in 1913, it would have been interesting to watch the debate over the question “If war were to break out between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, who would win?”

@MrMalachiCrunch:

Hear hear.  A good buddy of mine spent 21 years in the RCN, retired, then got bored and rejoined.  The Canadian navy size wise is pretty small, but they do excel in anti-sub warfare and did well with subs in war games against the USN with our old diesels.  BJCard is very right in that diesel subs are very quiet compared to nuclear subs, US nuclear subs are fairly quiet for nukes but nothing is as quiet as not having to run circulating pumps for a nuclear reactor like batteries and perhaps fuel cells.

Remember North Korea managed to sink a modern anti-sub ship with a very old diesel sub.  Yes it was a surprise attack but it still occurred.

They can however gain local sea superiority (especially with shore based aircraft) to invade Taiwan.

As was mentioned, the DF-21 is specifically designed to keep the US carrier groups well away from where they would be most effective.

Every always plans and excels at fighting the last war.  China is being forced to be innovative, lucky for us, innovation is a hallmark of the West.  Lets hope China does not get too innovative in the field of modern warfare.

A mass produced swarm of cheap networked robotic weapons and sensors will be the future of warfare.  Gee, I wonder who is the master of producing cheap electronics?

Agreed that we will be fighting ‘terminator’ style wars eventually.  Yes, small machines will do the dirty work, but by then will China still be the world’s factory?  Wages are rising there and the cost of shipping are causing many companies to build stuff elsewhere more and more.  Besides, as already said, a large majority of the innovation in the world happens in the US and Europe, not China.

Would we trust a swarm of cheap robots to fight our wars?  What happens when a glitch occurs and they turn on their masters?  Maybe it isn’t a glitch, but it is cyber-warfare?

This would likely happen. BUT what if Russia joins China and N. Korea?

Russia does not do that anymore. They only support UN with block votes with middle east nations that have warm water ports. They block our votes and remain silent on human rights issues, so those regimes can stay alive. They won’t “join” China in anything because that will trigger a world war. All they care about is their own interests, not helping China. If anything they would be on the UN’s side IMO.

It’s entirely possible that China will make a play for Taiwan and in this time N Korea might invade the south, but to link them as allies in a common front won’t happen. China wants to ship her goods and look presidential. Korea is a rogue nation and already isolated. China wants no part of that.

So what will likely happen is N Korea invades south, China does nothing with Taiwan. Result is Korea gets overthrown and defeated once their crappy army gets thrown back and logistical lines get cut.

@Imperious:

Funnest thing i heard in years. “mass” what navy, they got jack. China is only a land power, not air or sea and why? Check out their so called navy. Lobster boats, converted 1980’s soviet CV, floating wrecks of garbage and i do mean garbage. They probably do double duty for trash service.

Ya maybe China but look what N.-Korea got.
I don´t know IL but this pic shows some new stealth technique stuff from N.Korea.
-20 man horsepower
-wooden stealth technique
-Harpoon guided hand throwing missiles
what else they have in their sleeve??  8-) :-D

N Korea has a “1 minute fleet” : Floats long enough to get Dictator Ding Dong to Gilligan’s Island. Thats it.

I hope Ginger`s not there on Taiwan island! Thats a good one IL. :-D

Alright this has gone off topic.

Point is if China decides to make a play at Taiwan, unlikely that anyone could stop them, but they would suffer heavy casualties shortly after taking the Island.  The Western allies surge their Navy/Air Forces to the Western Pacific - 6+ American Aircraft Carrier groups, 1-2 European Aircraft Carrier groups, dozens of Submarines and landing craft.  That’s over 500 advanced carrier based aircraft alone.  Not to mention air based in Okinawa and the Philippines.  There is no way China will maintain local sea superiority and Taiwan can be retaken.

If this situation were to occur, China would be embargoed and the world economy would suffer.  Other countries around the world would take up the slack, more than happy to produce cheap goods for western investment- Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil, India, etc.  This is a no-win for China.

North Korea is another story- if they made a play for the South at the same time (presumably the world would be distracted by China), there are three scenarios I can see:
1. China aides them.  Unlikely, but would be extremely difficult to prevent a complete overrun of the South.  Do South Korea/US have enough bullets?  It could also depend on whether South Korea/Japan/US could get air superiority.  China has gotten better fighters recently, some of which technically can go toe-to-toe with our modern fighters.  Can South Korea/Japan/US win in the air while outnumbered?
2.  China doesn’t aide them.  North Korea runs out of supplies in a month and South Korea/Japan/US push back to the original line and another ceasefire results.  Status quo here.
3.  China doesn’t aide them.  South Korea/Japan/US decide to push all the way to China to unite Korea and remove the dictatorship in the north.  Kim Jong-un uses nuclear weapons in a desperate attempt to win and thousands of South Koreans/Japanese/Americans die depending on his target.  The US retaliate and North Korea is a nuclear wasteland.

Anyway, its how I see it.

My post is back on topic.

What constitutes “Winning?”

I see an armistice after a million or so deaths.

@Gargantua:

What constitutes “Winning?”

I see an armistice after a million or so deaths.

Winning is a relative term.  Rarely are there winners in war.

N.O.T.A

None of the above will happening, Dogs who bark don´t bite!

And, IF N.-Korea drops the bomb ,then a retaliation like dropping the Bomb back from the U.S. side doesn´t make any sense at all.
S.-Korea is allied with the U.S. ,IF the U.S. retaliate with a Nuclear strike then S.Korea will get a big load of that and China and all near other Neighbors will be then not so amused about it.
Next Step is , The U.S. is kicked out of the Nato because such backstabbing move will not be tolerated.

So Kim yong will show off?? Let Him.

@aequitas:

N.O.T.A

None of the above will happening, Dogs who bark don´t bite!

And, IF N.-Korea drops the bomb ,then a retaliation like dropping the Bomb back from the U.S. side doesn´t make any sense at all.
S.-Korea is allied with the U.S. ,IF the U.S. retaliate with a Nuclear strike then S.Korea will get a big load of that and China and all near other Neighbors will be then not so amused about it.
Next Step is , The U.S. is kicked out of the Nato because such backstabbing move will not be tolerated.

So Kim yong will show off?? Let Him.

So if North Korea uses a nuke on, say, Seoul/Busan, or Tokyo… No retaliation even conventionally?  That’s just giving them a free pass.

No, I don’t think the US would drop dozens of nukes, but a conventional bombing in North Korea may be in order- or even a small nuke in a low population area- that would not have much impact on South Korea or China radiologically, just psychologically.

South Korea may be begging us to take out the rest of North Korea’s nukes.  Not sure China would back North Korea if they used a nuke on Tokyo or Seoul/Busan.

No.
I`m saying that N.-Korea is only threatening and tries to provoke so who ever shoots first gets the blame.
Un knows that if He is starting first no one got his back, If he get´s someone to take the first shot on Him, then He is coming in BIG with China and whoever wants to see the U.S. goes down.

It´s like the extended version of the IRON CURTAIN…or IRON CURTAIN 2.1

Oh ok, yeah I don’t think anyone wants to fire nukes (or be the aggressor in a conventional war) in the Korea’s or Taiwan.  However, it seems that North Korea is a bit of a loose cannon, who knows what they will do.

@Imperious:

This would likely happen. BUT what if Russia joins China and N. Korea?

Russia does not do that anymore. They only support UN with block votes with middle east nations that have warm water ports. They block our votes and remain silent on human rights issues, so those regimes can stay alive. They won’t “join” China in anything because that will trigger a world war. All they care about is their own interests, not helping China. If anything they would be on the UN’s side IMO.

It’s entirely possible that China will make a play for Taiwan and in this time N Korea might invade the south, but to link them as allies in a common front won’t happen. China wants to ship her goods and look presidential. Korea is a rogue nation and already isolated. China wants no part of that.

So what will likely happen is N Korea invades south, China does nothing with Taiwan. Result is Korea gets overthrown and defeated once their crappy army gets thrown back and logistical lines get cut.

http://www.foxnews.mobi/quickPage.html?page=38321&content=88968363

Well….

There’s a difference in playing ‘chicken’ and saber rattling than actually joining a war.