Save Italy Strategy

A think your buys reflects an aggressive UK that thinks Germany doesn’t want to do sea lion, or wants or allied play that wants Germany to do Sealion (which is overall a good response).

The 97 battle outcome with scramble of 3 fighters is quite close. I see 1 aircraft carrier, 1 cruiser, 3 fighters, 1 tac and 1 bomber in this battle. It’s essentially a slaughter with each side losing 60 IPCs (Including 1 or 2 German aircraft and 1 or 2 Italian aircraft). The RAF would likely be crippled after this battle.

Italy would go after anything that is left from sea zone 98 with the sub and the bomber. Possibility to attack Malta sea zone and whatever planes are there with troops, the sub and the cruiser), but need to weigh in against trying Gibraltar. If there is no DD to cover malta, then the cruiser and troops likely give a shot at Gibraltar (only a 12% chance of winning but roughly IPC neutral). If Gibraltar falls, which is unlikely but possible, then Germany will completely wipe out the fleet in 91 with very minimal losses because of other planes thrown in the mix. If Gibraltar does not fall, the losses should help Germany assault it with troops on their turn (Good shot at killing another UK fighter in the process).

In Gibraltar, you would have scottish fighter, with 1 infantry and 1 mech.

In 91, You end up with 1 battleship, 2 cruisers (1 French) and 1 DD (assuming none of the sub(s) hit). Germany can hit this on its turn with 2 bombers, 1 battleship, 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer. That’s a 86% battle where Germany loses 28 IPCs in the sea battle. If Germans can bring in more planes because of a miraculous upset by Italianz in Gibraltar, then Germany can mitigate losses to be in the 10s. The naval battle should normally give way to an Amphibious landing.

One of the two German planes in Tobruk would go kill the Greek transport, the other plane would go support a massive attack on Greece on the German’s part with 5 infantry, 3 armor and tac bombers that cannot participate in other battles (thereby neutralizing the UK landing there easily).

The sub(s) and the destroyer in 106 would slug it out.

Assuming Germany has 73 to spend, German buys would be a 1 bomber (flexibility, ability to strike deep and overpower any attempt at building a destroyer fleet and protect with scrambles. Also good for bombing london, which is very minimally defended). probably dropping 1 sub to threathen 109 if both subs in 106 survived (as I would expect these to take care of the new Canadian destroyer, this buy would force UK to by another canadian destroyer on UK’s turn). Maybe 1 fighter to keep the airforce strong enough, 10 infantries in Germany to reinforce the foundation for a Russian stack (or a defence if UK opens sea lion). Save 15 IPCs to leave the UK thinking. Collect about 58 IPCs and end G2 with $73 again.

Saving the rest of the money and the number of aircrafts on the board keep the sea lion threat open. What is done beyond that depends on what the US is putting on the board. After 2 turns, the UK airforce and navies are completely neutralized and Italy has a robust presence in the med.

@wittman:

Nice. Leaving 110 fleet looks more attractive the more people do it.
I think UK would have to leave UK defences open to Sealion. I would buy a DD for Canada, 2mech for SA and 4 Inf for England. You have  worried me out of making the Egypt IC. (Good one!)
Attacks: Scottish Ft, BT, CR and DD against 91.
Uk BB, 2Fts, AC, Cr, Tac and Malta Ft vs. 97.
Gib Ft and DD from 98 vs. 96.
NCM: UK TT to Gib with 1Inf and 1Mech.
Egypt TT with 1Inf 1 Tk to Greece.
Scottish Inf and AA to UK.
French Channel CR would join Gib fleet.
Realise UK would be probably convoyed 3 for Canada.

The obvious disadvantage of this strategy is that attacks on Soviets are made I3 / G4 instead of a G2 or I2 / G3. Since Italy did not handle Greece / Southern Europe, it will have a decent can opening force on the Eastern Front sufficient to take any territory (unless the russians make a stand) and having the Germans land their significant air force to prevent a counterattack. If there are no attractive targets on G4 (e.g, Russian Navy, bordering territories), then I believe Germany can reinforce the Russian territory(ies) captured in I3 (e.g., both Eastern Poland and Baltic States) without a declaration of war (thus collecting 5 IPC again?)

I like this though because the German airforce should be quite strong and a late declaration of war to Russia gives the 5 extra IPC to Germany multiple times, prevents Russia to do the middle east trick and prevents Russia from getting its other war NO.

If the German stack lead by repeated robust Italian can openers on an instoppable on it’s march to Moscow, then we should have this:

G4 (German stack in Baltic States with war on or not, if at War consider taking Karelia / Vyborg) - On R4, Russians need to abandon Leningrad (retreat to Archangel or total consolidation in Belarus or make a stand there)

On I4, Italians open belarus or take Leningrad.

On G5, Germans attack Belarus to reduce russian stack with superior firepower (and retreat if counterattack threat looms) or reinforce Italian belarus conquest.

On I5, assuming Russians fell back, Italians Open Smolensk

On G6, Germans reinforce Smolensk. (throughout this process, watch for ways to strat bomb russia with benefit of strong air force).

on G7 or G8 decisive attack on Moscow.

Waiting a bit to attack the Russians and save Italians troops for the can opening will lead to larger battles on the russian front or a planned retreat (which is good for Germany). This would create steady momentum for Germany (who can fight on their own terms, preserve their forces) and gradually weaken the Soviet union. If the outcome of the decisive battle in Moscow is in doubt, then just “go around it” and let germany create a steady flow of infantries and planes that slowly strangles the soviets while leaving options open on the Eastern front (e.g., strategic bombing, mechanized strikes supported by air force). This further complicates the US’s role to strike Italy.

The Italian buy on I1 was not determined, but I now think that 1 tank / 1 mech in Northern Italy is the right choice to the condition that at least 2 German fighters land in South Italy (better yet 3) to preserve some Italian air power (leaving tac bombers to cover Tobruk)

So because of this, I would adjust my first turn to this (shifting one bomber and one tac from 111, allowing for extra German fighters to land in South Italy instead of Tobruk). By taking the losses in SZ 97, this allows the German to inject 20 or 30 IPC in Italy’s economy and put the UK in further trouble. If UK chickens out, this German airforce (2 - 3 fighets and 1 tac in south italy + 2 Tacs in Tobruk), ensures that the UK leaves the med.

Build 2 fighters and 1 destroyer, Save 2
Take 106 with 2 subs (117 / 118) (87% win)
Take 91 with 2 subs (103/ 108) (85% win)
Attack 111 (BB, DD, CA) with 1 sub (124), 1 fighter (Norway), 1 fighter (Holland), 1 tac (Western Germany) 2 strat (Germany) 85% with scramble, 98% without
Attack southern France with 1 armor (Great Southern Germany), 1 tac (Germany) and 2 mech (Great Southern Germany) - 98% win
Take France Turn 1 (7 infantry, 2 mec, 3 artillery, 5 tanks) 97% win
Attack French Fleet with 2 fighters (Western Germany), 2 Tac (West Germany) (99%) 2 Tacs contnue to tobruk and one or 2 fighters land in south italy
Take Bulgaria with 1 infrantry from Romania / Finland with 1 infrantry from Norway
Take Yugoslavia (3 tanks, 6 infantry with 3 from great southern germany, 1 from romania, 2 from slovakia, 2 artillery from great southern Germany), 1 tac from Poland, 1 fighter from Slovakia (1 fighter continues to South Italy, Tac Continues to South Italy)

@wittman:

I like the sound of it. Does all hang on taking Moscow of course and US not retaking France if Egypt looks too hard.
Have you played it or only planned it?

I unfortunately don’t have enough time to play this game online, my time would be getting sucked into this too much. I’m prepping for my next in person game. I spend some time reading this forum and played the global version IRL a few times.

On US re-taking France:

As long as Italy can balance out UK and send a couple Mech Infantry per turn in Russia, I don’t think the US would be that big of a deal in terms of taking France and keeping it. The supply line is fairly involved for the US and Germany should have enough IPCs / air force to hold out (in theory, in practice the air force can only be at one place at once). What I’m the most worried about is Italy not faring as well as expected and significant early US airforce knocking off fleets in the med to give UK some breather and / or altering the balance in Russia in later turns.

@Cmdr:

I’ve given up on SZ 97, PERIOD.  Even if Germany does not land a plane to scramble, I’d lose that fight.  I could have 98% odds in my favor, and lose that battle, so I dont fight it anymore.

As for saving Italy - Sea Lion does that every time.  I’ve never lost Italy after a sea lion SUCCESS (defined as both taking England and having enough left over to repush the Russians out again.)  I don’t think in 3.9 you can succeed in Sea Lion anymore.  Personal feeling.

Now, to save Italy, I think Japan has to pull America into the Pacific. It’s probably the only way.   W/O America, Germany can take on Russia, keep the British happy and defend Italy if necessary (those planes can literally defend a lot of territory, and put massive threat out if you do it right.)

One thing I’ve done is:  If America’;s buying fleet in the Atlantic, build transports in SZ 6 and threaten to take Midway, Wake, Hawaii and Alaska (or Aluetians.)  It’s better than the DEI, I feel.  Not financially (17 for Japan vs 24 for Japan in income differential) but because it puts America in a vice.  That’s if Americas going fleet heavy in the Atlantic anyway.

A threat of victory in the Pacific (Japan having taken DEI, Phillipines, Calcultta, Hong Kong) around J5 should force the US to get involved pretty seriously…