Does an A+3 Sealion = Axis victory?

Hey Guys explain to me why Sealion got so much tougher. I believe the rules say the AAgun still only fires once at each aircraft. Is it the extra four hits England take or am I reading something wrong.

Decent, but not enough defense.  That is, if I am willing to sacrifice everything I have for the chance of getting 1 Armor to survive and take London, I have better odds than England does.  Maybe not MUCH better, but better.

Yes, I am willing to have 30% of my games fail if I want Sea Lion.  Keep in mind, I don’t WANT Sea Lion.  70% or better odds of losing a capitol regardless of what you do is still darn good for the person taking that capitol.

As I was walking, I was contemplating and I think you can give up the SZ 111 battle to get better odds in SZ 110, and France and make it better.  Leave England with 3 aircraft, 2 cruisers and a battleship to attack 5 fighters, carrier, cruiser, dmg battleship which is in Germany’s favor as well.

Not really sure, I’d seriously have to play the numbers some more.  Maybe keep the cruiser out of the fight, hit SZ 110 and use the cruiser to block the British cruiser.

Anyway, even as is, there’s a very strong chance that England will fall. (70%.)  Yes, without France Germany is not getting the transports, but Italy’s getting a “thumb your nose at the Royal Navy” fleet when they get it.

@GoSanchez6:

Hey Guys explain to me why Sealion got so much tougher. I believe the rules say the AAgun still only fires once at each aircraft. Is it the extra four hits England take or am I reading something wrong.

This all started when Mantlefan lamented that Sea Lion was impossible now.  The reason he stated this was because of the four extra hits on England.  Those hits were called for by a few people when Larry considered releasing another set of rules and many of us are happy they are there mainly because we felt it was ridiculous that Germany could take out England and have a full round to get into position to fight Russia, and when taking England, they had a stellar chance of having mulitple units left on the ground and air.

All I am attempting to do now is prove Sea Lion is still viable.  I have not, nor will I in the forseeable future, declare Sea Lion as a good idea.  That does not mean it is a bad idea or that it is not possible.

@Cmdr:

2 Submarines SZ 106
1 Submarine SZ 111
2 Submaines SZ 110

Perhaps I typoed the SZ 111 battle.  Habbit of mine to bring 2 submarines there, it’s taking some time getting used to the shift. (New habbit should be 2 submarines to SZ 106, 2 to SZ 109 and lots of planes to SZ 109…dont really WANT London, but I want to show it is not only possible, but probable to win.  Not necessarily a GOOD idea, but it is AN idea.)

Keep in mind, Jim, I for the sake of this argument, I don’t care if I lose every blasted German unit on the board and Russia can blitz into Berlin unopposed, all I care about is the theoretical and probablity of Germany actually getting England on round 3 or 4 (and I feel more chance of that on round 4, which is why I am arguing that one.)  I dont even care if England can liberate it the next round.

Good, that was the whole point of the exercise in the first place.  And Jim was right, we were soliciting any wild idea to see if it was the best Sealion approach, go all 15 pages to see the results.

Yes, but the wild ideas your respondants had may not coincide with mine.

There are some significant changes too, for instance, having extremely good chances of destroying the transport in SZ 106 removes 2 units from England and delays the other 2 from getting there.  Now, they might be in range to Liberate, but as I said, I dont care if it can be liberated or if it is economically in my best interests.

The strafe is patently really bad for England.  I’ve demonstrated that.  13 Infantry, 7 Artillery, 5 Armor, AA Gun gives me a 50% chance to kill 20% of England’s airforce and England is going to lose no less than a dozen infantry in the first couple of rounds.  Even if we pretend they got average to slightly above average dice, they take more damage than the Germans do and leave Germany with 3 or 4 artillery and 5 armor after they’re done.  Those artillery still support the landing infantry from Europe, so each one is worth it’s weight in Gold Pressed Latinum.

Now, as I said, it is perfectly reasonable to assume the dice go badly for Germany, but other than the actual invasion of England, no set of bad dice are devastating to Germany, they can always switch back to Russian-Centric vision.  So France petered out, okay, retreat, let the Italians get it.  So the British ships got 100% accuracy, set up Russia and go for the throat with Submarines.  Hell, I have said on MANY an occasion that submarines > sea lion, if I could put in more greater than signs, I would.

@Cmdr:

Yes, but the wild ideas your respondants had may not coincide with mine.
***I bet one of them did, that is the advantage of taking in so many claims, one of them will eventually be right.

There are some significant changes too, for instance, having extremely good chances of destroying the transport in SZ 106 removes 2 units from England and delays the other 2 from getting there.  Now, they might be in range to Liberate, but as I said, I dont care if it can be liberated or if it is economically in my best interests.
***yes, in my games I skip sz111 and send 1 sub to 112, and 2 subs to 106.  I don’t want those ships to live!  I’d also like to convoy raid or bait UK ships towards Canada.

The strafe is patently really bad for England.  I’ve demonstrated that.  13 Infantry, 7 Artillery, 5 Armor, AA Gun gives me a 50% chance to kill 20% of England’s airforce and England is going to lose no less than a dozen infantry in the first couple of rounds.  Even if we pretend they got average to slightly above average dice, they take more damage than the Germans do and leave Germany with 3 or 4 artillery and 5 armor after they’re done.  Those artillery still support the landing infantry from Europe, so each one is worth it’s weight in Gold Pressed Latinum.
***Really aught to read that thread then.  You were not accounting for max defense in London.  UK had 4 or 5 armor, I can’t remember, also they could bombard that stack in Scotland too from off Gibraltar…

Now, as I said, it is perfectly reasonable to assume the dice go badly for Germany, but other than the actual invasion of England, no set of bad dice are devastating to Germany, they can always switch back to Russian-Centric vision.  So France petered out, okay, retreat, let the Italians get it.  So the British ships got 100% accuracy, set up Russia and go for the throat with Submarines.  Hell, I have said on MANY an occasion that submarines > sea lion, if I could put in more greater than signs, I would.
***a decent reason to use lower odds attacks, if things go bad there’s already a backup plan.  However we were trying to find the best Sealion, so Germany was trying to reduce losses G1 in order to have the most forces to attack with G3.

@JimmyHat:

@Cmdr:

Yes, but the wild ideas your respondants had may not coincide with mine.
***I bet one of them did, that is the advantage of taking in so many claims, one of them will eventually be right.
Probably, but maybe not.

There are some significant changes too, for instance, having extremely good chances of destroying the transport in SZ 106 removes 2 units from England and delays the other 2 from getting there.  Now, they might be in range to Liberate, but as I said, I dont care if it can be liberated or if it is economically in my best interests.
***yes, in my games I skip sz111 and send 1 sub to 112, and 2 subs to 106.  I don’t want those ships to live!  I’d also like to convoy raid or bait UK ships towards Canada.
2 Submarines to SZ 106, 2 Submarines to SZ 110 and 1 Submarine to SZ 112 if I was skipping SZ 111.

The strafe is patently really bad for England.  I’ve demonstrated that.  13 Infantry, 7 Artillery, 5 Armor, AA Gun gives me a 50% chance to kill 20% of England’s airforce and England is going to lose no less than a dozen infantry in the first couple of rounds.  Even if we pretend they got average to slightly above average dice, they take more damage than the Germans do and leave Germany with 3 or 4 artillery and 5 armor after they’re done.  Those artillery still support the landing infantry from Europe, so each one is worth it’s weight in Gold Pressed Latinum.
***Really aught to read that thread then.  You were not accounting for max defense in London.  UK had 4 or 5 armor, I can’t remember, also they could bombard that stack in Scotland too from off Gibraltar…
Could you sum it up?  Because I don’t see that much equipment in England and I did sum up how I came to that earlier in this thread.  I only have 2 armor there, one built and 1 from Canada.  The rest are all infantry to get up to peak performance of the complex.
Also, bombard with what from Gibraltar?

Now, as I said, it is perfectly reasonable to assume the dice go badly for Germany, but other than the actual invasion of England, no set of bad dice are devastating to Germany, they can always switch back to Russian-Centric vision.  So France petered out, okay, retreat, let the Italians get it.  So the British ships got 100% accuracy, set up Russia and go for the throat with Submarines.  Hell, I have said on MANY an occasion that submarines > sea lion, if I could put in more greater than signs, I would.
***a decent reason to use lower odds attacks, if things go bad there’s already a backup plan.  However we were trying to find the best Sealion, so Germany was trying to reduce losses G1 in order to have the most forces to attack with G3.
Yea, well, considering I am not really advocating the attack, I think 70% is a good cutoff and would probably, for proof of concept, go as low as 65% for one battle (out of like 5 or 6 battles declared).  I used to do that Russian triple everytime in AAR as well. Sometimes it backfired and I got smashed, but 70% of the time (ballpark figure) it worked out for me and Germany was on the ropes from day 1.

I say buy into the sea lion look and if the opportunity presents itself then go for it!!! if not then use the Navy to hammer the crap out of the Royal Navy and keep control of the Atlantic, use the Transports to go after Russia and Africa keep plenty of Sub’s on the board, get their money(U.S.A. & U.K.) and force them into buying Destroyers
  Hit France harder (Paris)  so that the odds are more in your favor of having more pieces survive
  Land in Scotland and make U.K. fight for it and keep them on the ropes

I am content to follow this exercise through, provided the attacks made are realistic attacks (as someone who will remain nameless asked).  Such as a 68% chance at Paris - not realistic as no Axis player would risk the game in the first turn.  There are 2 zones that must be won at all costs - Paris and sz112.

We could look at not hitting sz111, but now we need to know what Germany would look like at the end of its turn to see an appropriate UK response.

Mantelfan, I look forward to seeing your thoughts.

Leaving seazone 111 alone and blocking with the German cruiser leaves 4 fht (buy a CV with UK to land the fht from Gib), 2 DD, 1 BB vs 1 CV, 1 dmg BB, 5 fht.

47% UK win

47% German win

6 % mutual annihilation.

Leaving sz111 alone isn’t a good idea.

@jim010:

I am content to follow this exercise through, provided the attacks made are realistic attacks (as someone who will remain nameless asked).  Such as a 68% chance at Paris - not realistic as no Axis player would risk the game in the first turn.  There are 2 zones that must be won at all costs - Paris and sz112.

We could look at not hitting sz111, but now we need to know what Germany would look like at the end of its turn to see an appropriate UK response.

Mantelfan, I look forward to seeing your thoughts.

Indeed, I would have like to see your input on the original Alpha2 thread, you go step by step through the options.  Even if the exercise is futile, by completing it we can see just how futile it is in Alpha3.  Sadly I don’t have any hands on experience with the new setup for a few weeks I fear.

@Cmdr:

Decent, but not enough defense.  That is, if I am willing to sacrifice everything I have for the chance of getting 1 Armor to survive and take London, I have better odds than England does.  Maybe not MUCH better, but better.
We’ll see.  You still have to show you can reliably kill both TTs, take Paris, kill the Normandy fht and hold sz112.  You haven’t done that yet.
Yes, I am willing to have 30% of my games fail if I want Sea Lion.  Keep in mind, I don’t WANT Sea Lion.  70% or better odds of losing a capitol regardless of what you do is still darn good for the person taking that capitol.
Then this discussion is over.  You CANNOT lose Paris.  A 1 in 3 of losing the game is not realistic.  That should only be a play you make if you are playing Jesus Christ Himself.  And after you lose the game, He’ll probably send you to purgatory for playing such a violent game anyway.

As I was walking, I was contemplating and I think you can give up the SZ 111 battle to get better odds in SZ 110, and France and make it better.  Leave England with 3 aircraft, 2 cruisers and a battleship to attack 5 fighters, carrier, cruiser, dmg battleship which is in Germany’s favor as well.

Not really sure, I’d seriously have to play the numbers some more.  Maybe keep the cruiser out of the fight, hit SZ 110 and use the cruiser to block the British cruiser.  
See above.

Anyway, even as is, there’s a very strong chance that England will fall. (70%.)  Yes, without France Germany is not getting the transports, but Italy’s getting a “thumb your nose at the Royal Navy” fleet when they get it.
If Germany does not get France, there is no Sealion.  Period.

If I may suggest something, Mantlefan?

What are you planning against, by the way?  If it is Jen’s G1 she posted, then I would hit her fleet in sz112 like she owes you money.

Otherwise, to defeat a G3 Sealion or to do a hit and run on Scotland UK3 (based on the previous study we did on this), all planes need to come home, and the TT in sz98 needs to come back with a tank and inf.  This would entail landing planes on Gib, and blocking them from being hit with the DD from sz109 to sz104.

@jim010:

If I may suggest something, Mantlefan?

What are you planning against, by the way?  If it is Jen’s G1 she posted, then I would hit her fleet in sz112 like she owes you money.

Otherwise, to defeat a G3 Sealion or to do a hit and run on Scotland UK3 (based on the previous study we did on this), all planes need to come home, and the TT in sz98 needs to come back with a tank and inf.  This would entail landing planes on Gib, and blocking them from being hit with the DD from sz109 to sz104.

The G1 turn attacking 109 and leaving both 110 / 111 intact is completely suicidal. Plus there is a good chance France won’t be taken. If France is not taken, bye bye Sealion!

@mantlefan:

I am going from the G1 on page 8, post 110

You waisted your time with the counter it looks like, her moves are illegal (now there are airbases everywhere)

The fighters go either to 111 or 110. How can the slovakia fighter get to any of those places?!

Besides, a 75% chance of winning France is a really bad battle.

Without counting the AA as a casualty, I get 74% odd of winning. On average, 45 IPCs are lost out of 73 IPC of units engaged. That means that 28 IPC survive on AVERAGE say (2 tacs, 1 tank survive). WOW, that will help sea lion.

http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html

Adding in an infantry to get an idea what kind of trouble the extra casualty brings, and substituting 2 tanks for two infantries to keep hitting power more similar. That takes simplistic view that 1 AA  + 2 tanks =  3 infantry

Then the odds of winning go down to 70% (this is conservative since tanks retain their hitting power until the end) and losses go up to 47 IPC…

So one chance out of 3 to not win the battle, which means losing everything! Without taking France, sealion is DEAD and with all these losses, Germany is DEAD! Let’s talk serious here.

For my reply, assuming this is the one.

@Cmdr:

Jim,

When, since Alpha 3 came out, have I declared 1 Submarine vs 1 Destroyer?  If you can point one out, I’ll conceed I made the statement, but I honestly believe I have never made that declaration about Sea Lion in Alpha 3.  In Alpha 3, I believe, I have always said 2 Submarines to SZ 106.  Sometimes i waffle between hitting SZ 111/SZ 110 or SZ 109, but I’ve settled on 110/111 in the past 24ish hours.

I dont have to take W. France, I only have to kill the British fighter.  That gives me a lot more leeway in what I have to hit W. France with to “succeed”.  It would be better to hit it, but given the extra round between G3 and G4, I can make up the difference of 1 transport by purchasing it on G3 instead.

---

G1
Purchase $30
1CV, 2 TRN

DOW: Yugoslavia

CM:

SZ106 (1DD, 1TP)
2 Submarines
Odds:
A-87.4%
D-8.2%

SZ110 (1CA)
2 Submarines, 3 Fighters, 2 Tactical Bombers
Odds:
A-99.2%
D-0.4%
Odds(Scrambling):
A-73.6%
D-20.7%

SZ111 (1DD, 1BB)
Submarine, 2 Fighters, Tactical Bomber, Strategic Bomber
Odds:
A-100%
D-0%
Odds(Scrambling):
A-85.8%
D-9.1%

SZ112 (2CA)
Battleship, Cruiser
Odds:
A-82.2%
D-9.6%

Wfr (2inf, 1tnk, 1fgt)
4 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor
Odds:
A-77.3%
D-19%

France (7inf, 2art, 2tnk, 1fgt, 1 AA Gun)
3 Infantry, 4 Mech, 2 Artillery, 3 Armor, 2 Tactical Bombers
2 Tac
Odds:
A-75.5%
D-22.4%

Yugoslavia (5inf)
9 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 3 Armor
Odds:
A-100%
D-0%

---

Note:  If any of the attacks go badly for Germany, it is not too late to switch over to Barbarrosa.  Germany would, naturally, invite scrambling.  Sure, the Germans might lose planes, but it’s almost certain England does.

Trickiest battles:
France - due to the AA Gun and shear number of units
SZ 112 - due to ease of RNG screwing you over (for either side)

All the rest are firmly in Germany’s favor.

---

Yes, I realize that I declared you do not need aircraft to win in France.  That is still true.  In fact, you could switch the two tactical bombers in France to the W. France attack, but I wanted them there because of the Sea Lion attempt, they hit on a 4 if coupled with a tank, so it gives me 2 more punch in France.

If I was going to just castrate the British, I wouldnt even bother with W. France, instead, I would hit SZ 106, SZ 109 and stack my aircraft in Holland.

This is the best thread that I have read in a while!

I find it hard to know what she is trying to do, as she changes her moves from post to post.  I believe she changed her mind again and decided to not hit sz111?

If going by her original G1, then count her units attacking sz111 as all dead as well as the UK fht.  I figure that with 52% odds, she is just as likely to have nothing left as she is to survive with a plane.

Also, as pointed out, she has not allocated her planes properly.  I would not entertain her G1 until she fixes it and takes Paris with a proper margin of success.

Regardless, I still recommend bring all planes home and a loaded TT from sz98.  You’ll find you’ll need them.  But we can see where your idea leads.

I would not scramble as the Germans in sz97, by the way.

Omega I noted in my post that I traded the ftr in 110 that moved illegally with a tac in France. The tac that got traded has to land on a carrier.

You are pulling a tac from Paris?  Then Paris odds crash into the 50th percentile range.

3 inf, 4 mec, 2 art, 3 tanks, 1 tac attacking Paris?  Is this correct?

Jim, I know Jen’s moves are risky, but her losing 4 planes (2 ftr tac 1bmb) + 1 sub against BB, DD Sub is a bit much. I think most of the time Germany woud keep at least the bmb. I am trying to give her better than average dice overall so I don’t get accused of warping the dice results to prove my point or whatever. So Germany kept 2 planes there.

I am assuming she can’t get that 2nd fht to sz111.

@jim010:

Omega I noted in my post that I traded the ftr in 110 that moved illegally with a tac in France. The tac that got traded has to land on a carrier.

You are pulling a tac from Paris?  Then Paris odds crash into the 50th percentile range.

3 inf, 4 mec, 2 art, 3 tanks, 1 tac attacking Paris?  Is this correct?

Jim, I know Jen’s moves are risky, but her losing 4 planes (2 ftr tac 1bmb) + 1 sub against BB, DD Sub is a bit much. I think most of the time Germany woud keep at least the bmb. I am trying to give her better than average dice overall so I don’t get accused of warping the dice results to prove my point or whatever. So Germany kept 2 planes there.

I am assuming she can’t get that 2nd fht to sz111.

Trading the tac for a fighter in France and I get 66.8% success rate with 48 of average losses out of 72 IPC engaged. Basically need to lose a plane to take the territory at that point.