Does an A+3 Sealion = Axis victory?

@jim010:

If I may suggest something, Mantlefan?

What are you planning against, by the way?  If it is Jen’s G1 she posted, then I would hit her fleet in sz112 like she owes you money.

Otherwise, to defeat a G3 Sealion or to do a hit and run on Scotland UK3 (based on the previous study we did on this), all planes need to come home, and the TT in sz98 needs to come back with a tank and inf.  This would entail landing planes on Gib, and blocking them from being hit with the DD from sz109 to sz104.

The G1 turn attacking 109 and leaving both 110 / 111 intact is completely suicidal. Plus there is a good chance France won’t be taken. If France is not taken, bye bye Sealion!

@mantlefan:

I am going from the G1 on page 8, post 110

You waisted your time with the counter it looks like, her moves are illegal (now there are airbases everywhere)

The fighters go either to 111 or 110. How can the slovakia fighter get to any of those places?!

Besides, a 75% chance of winning France is a really bad battle.

Without counting the AA as a casualty, I get 74% odd of winning. On average, 45 IPCs are lost out of 73 IPC of units engaged. That means that 28 IPC survive on AVERAGE say (2 tacs, 1 tank survive). WOW, that will help sea lion.

http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html

Adding in an infantry to get an idea what kind of trouble the extra casualty brings, and substituting 2 tanks for two infantries to keep hitting power more similar. That takes simplistic view that 1 AA  + 2 tanks =  3 infantry

Then the odds of winning go down to 70% (this is conservative since tanks retain their hitting power until the end) and losses go up to 47 IPC…

So one chance out of 3 to not win the battle, which means losing everything! Without taking France, sealion is DEAD and with all these losses, Germany is DEAD! Let’s talk serious here.

For my reply, assuming this is the one.

@Cmdr:

Jim,

When, since Alpha 3 came out, have I declared 1 Submarine vs 1 Destroyer?  If you can point one out, I’ll conceed I made the statement, but I honestly believe I have never made that declaration about Sea Lion in Alpha 3.  In Alpha 3, I believe, I have always said 2 Submarines to SZ 106.  Sometimes i waffle between hitting SZ 111/SZ 110 or SZ 109, but I’ve settled on 110/111 in the past 24ish hours.

I dont have to take W. France, I only have to kill the British fighter.  That gives me a lot more leeway in what I have to hit W. France with to “succeed”.  It would be better to hit it, but given the extra round between G3 and G4, I can make up the difference of 1 transport by purchasing it on G3 instead.

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G1
Purchase $30
1CV, 2 TRN

DOW: Yugoslavia

CM:

SZ106 (1DD, 1TP)
2 Submarines
Odds:
A-87.4%
D-8.2%

SZ110 (1CA)
2 Submarines, 3 Fighters, 2 Tactical Bombers
Odds:
A-99.2%
D-0.4%
Odds(Scrambling):
A-73.6%
D-20.7%

SZ111 (1DD, 1BB)
Submarine, 2 Fighters, Tactical Bomber, Strategic Bomber
Odds:
A-100%
D-0%
Odds(Scrambling):
A-85.8%
D-9.1%

SZ112 (2CA)
Battleship, Cruiser
Odds:
A-82.2%
D-9.6%

Wfr (2inf, 1tnk, 1fgt)
4 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor
Odds:
A-77.3%
D-19%

France (7inf, 2art, 2tnk, 1fgt, 1 AA Gun)
3 Infantry, 4 Mech, 2 Artillery, 3 Armor, 2 Tactical Bombers
2 Tac
Odds:
A-75.5%
D-22.4%

Yugoslavia (5inf)
9 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 3 Armor
Odds:
A-100%
D-0%

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Note:  If any of the attacks go badly for Germany, it is not too late to switch over to Barbarrosa.  Germany would, naturally, invite scrambling.  Sure, the Germans might lose planes, but it’s almost certain England does.

Trickiest battles:
France - due to the AA Gun and shear number of units
SZ 112 - due to ease of RNG screwing you over (for either side)

All the rest are firmly in Germany’s favor.

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Yes, I realize that I declared you do not need aircraft to win in France.  That is still true.  In fact, you could switch the two tactical bombers in France to the W. France attack, but I wanted them there because of the Sea Lion attempt, they hit on a 4 if coupled with a tank, so it gives me 2 more punch in France.

If I was going to just castrate the British, I wouldnt even bother with W. France, instead, I would hit SZ 106, SZ 109 and stack my aircraft in Holland.

This is the best thread that I have read in a while!

I find it hard to know what she is trying to do, as she changes her moves from post to post.  I believe she changed her mind again and decided to not hit sz111?

If going by her original G1, then count her units attacking sz111 as all dead as well as the UK fht.  I figure that with 52% odds, she is just as likely to have nothing left as she is to survive with a plane.

Also, as pointed out, she has not allocated her planes properly.  I would not entertain her G1 until she fixes it and takes Paris with a proper margin of success.

Regardless, I still recommend bring all planes home and a loaded TT from sz98.  You’ll find you’ll need them.  But we can see where your idea leads.

I would not scramble as the Germans in sz97, by the way.

Omega I noted in my post that I traded the ftr in 110 that moved illegally with a tac in France. The tac that got traded has to land on a carrier.

You are pulling a tac from Paris?  Then Paris odds crash into the 50th percentile range.

3 inf, 4 mec, 2 art, 3 tanks, 1 tac attacking Paris?  Is this correct?

Jim, I know Jen’s moves are risky, but her losing 4 planes (2 ftr tac 1bmb) + 1 sub against BB, DD Sub is a bit much. I think most of the time Germany woud keep at least the bmb. I am trying to give her better than average dice overall so I don’t get accused of warping the dice results to prove my point or whatever. So Germany kept 2 planes there.

I am assuming she can’t get that 2nd fht to sz111.

@jim010:

Omega I noted in my post that I traded the ftr in 110 that moved illegally with a tac in France. The tac that got traded has to land on a carrier.

You are pulling a tac from Paris?  Then Paris odds crash into the 50th percentile range.

3 inf, 4 mec, 2 art, 3 tanks, 1 tac attacking Paris?  Is this correct?

Jim, I know Jen’s moves are risky, but her losing 4 planes (2 ftr tac 1bmb) + 1 sub against BB, DD Sub is a bit much. I think most of the time Germany woud keep at least the bmb. I am trying to give her better than average dice overall so I don’t get accused of warping the dice results to prove my point or whatever. So Germany kept 2 planes there.

I am assuming she can’t get that 2nd fht to sz111.

Trading the tac for a fighter in France and I get 66.8% success rate with 48 of average losses out of 72 IPC engaged. Basically need to lose a plane to take the territory at that point.

Guys, what would you do against this? Zone 111 is spared, but with naval build to push it out. If UK goes stupid, I think I can sealion.

Build Aircraft Carrier + 1 sub + 1 destroyer in zone 112

Take 112 (1 cruiser, 1 sub and 1 battleship + 1 tactical W. Germany)
Take 106 with 2 subs (117 / 118)
Take 110 (against BB and Cruiser + 3 scramble) with 2 subs (103/ 108) +  1 bomber 2 tactical (W. Germany) + 2 fighters (1 from Holland, 1 from Norway: none of these to south Italy)
Take France Turn 1 (4 infantry, 4 mec, 3 artillery, 4 tanks, 1 tactical from Poland, 1 fighter from Slovakia)
Take Normandy Turn 1 (Destroy fighter to help Italian Fleet) - 1 Infantry, 1 tank and 1 fighter, Attack with 3 infantry, 1 tank, 1 tactical from Germany, 2 fighters ( 2 from W Germany)
Take Bulgaria with 1 infrantry from Romania / Finland with 1 infrantry from Norway
Take Yugoslavia (3 tanks, 6 infantry with 3 from great southern germany, 1 from romania, 2 from slovakia, 2 artillery from great southern Germany)

Move 2  fighters to Southern Italy (from Western Germany, attacked Normandy)
Land tactical from Poland in W. Germany
Land Figher from Norway on Carrier
Land Figher from Holland on Carrier
Land fighter from Slovakia in Holland
Land 1 Tactical from W. Germany to W. Germany
Land 2 Tacticals from W. Germany to Holland
Land 1 tactical from Germany in Holland
Move 3 AA Guns to Holland

In Holland: 3 AA guns, 3 tac, 1 fighter
In West Germany: 2 tactical, 1 strategic bomber
On 112: 1 damaged battleship, 1 cruiser, 2 subs, 1 destroyer, 1 carrier, 2 fighters
In South Italy: 2 fighters

25 / 36 chance to not lose a plane in  France
Should not lose planes anywhere else unless UK scrambles

@jim010:

Don’t forget the AA is also taken as a soak.  That drops teh odds another ~5-7%

I think I accounted for that.

I accounted for the AA + 2 tanks as 3 infantry instead (3 losses, 6 defense for each combo) and checked the AA box on. I think this is pretty close no?

Sorry guys, I still don’t see where all the planes are coming from to hit all these zones.

Another flaw with Jen’s strategy: the Italian fleet will get cluberred without any air cover.

@Omega1759:

Another flaw with Jen’s strategy: the Italian fleet will get cluberred without any air cover.

In this one instance, it is ok if you want Sealion.  Hitting the Italians means 3 planes and 1 loaded TT are not getting to London, and London should fall.

@jim010:

@Omega1759:

Another flaw with Jen’s strategy: the Italian fleet will get cluberred without any air cover.

In this one instance, it is ok if you want Sealion.  Hitting the Italians means 3 planes and 1 loaded TT are not getting to London, and London should fall.

I don’t think they need to be worried at all about Sealion. Jennifer has more than a 35% chance of not getting the French IPC and she might even lose 1 or 2 planes doing it (the 65% of the time she gets it)

Not sure where she takes her land units to invade London if most ground forces are wiped out in France and Western France. This just does not make sense to me.

Being Russia and watching the transport purchases and all the losses on the Ground, I would lick my lips and mass up in Eastern Poland!

I think I got the fhts figured out now.  Still, odds are dropping on Paris.

Omega, if you post a map, I could look at it easier.

First thing I would look at, is if I could move the fleet to sz109 and build a navy around it.  Otherwise, I would still bring all planes home, but maybe not the sz98 TT.

Not sure where she takes her land units to invade London if most ground forces are wiped out in France and Western France. This just does not make sense to me.

She may be down a couple tanks, but will still be able to load up using eth Scandanavian units, units from Ger, Pol, and Sgr and remaing tanks.  Being down the tanks, though, will affect your attack a bit on London.

@jim010:

Omega, if you post a map, I could look at it easier.

First thing I would look at, is if I could move the fleet to sz109 and build a navy around it.  Otherwise, I would still bring all planes home, but maybe not the sz98 TT.

Not sure where she takes her land units to invade London if most ground forces are wiped out in France and Western France. This just does not make sense to me.

She may be down a couple tanks, but will still be able to load up using eth Scandanavian units, units from Ger, Pol, and Sgr and remaing tanks.  Being down the tanks, though, will affect your attack a bit on London.

Hmm, I don’t think reinforcing 109 works because I can hit 109 with just about everything (pretty much all the planes, and all the subs left except what’s in 106).

If you get fleet out of the med, this assumes that you will defend Gibraltar at the end of UK 1? What will there be defending Gibraltar?

Post a map for me.

@Young:

I’ve changed the title of this thread, because the true and proper definition of “possible” was confusing. I’m sorry for causing such an up roar, and I hope the new title is clearer.

My take on the topic is that a sealion against a determined / sound defense will lead to a quick defeat of Germany.

If the sealion is opportunistic, however, it might lead to a victory.

@jim010:

Post a map for me.

I would like to, but I don’t use the software this board is using for the game (that would be a bad idea)… I assume you have an electronic copy of the map (there is a high res map in the post it topics of this board)