Does an A+3 Sealion = Axis victory?

@Cmdr:

Is Sea Lion reasonably possible? Yes.

On G3?  Maybe.

On G4?  Definitely

Is it impossible to get Sea Lion (with reasonable results?)  No.

Is it smart to do Sea Lion?  Depends on what your opponent does, if he turtles, probably not, if he focuses on fleet/S. Africa, probably yes.

I repeat, as I have run the odds for you.

G3 is less than 40% with a proper defense.

G4 is vulnerable to a hit and fade attack on Scotland.

@Young:

So if you were going to wait and find out what the UK does before committing to Sealion, what would your G1 purchase be? (I’m guessing an aircraft carrier, a fighter, and an artillery).

Submarine, Fighter, Infantry, Artillery, Transport
or
Aircraft Carrier, 2 Transports (If I want England to get paranoid)

Jim, I think a hit and run attack by England would be in Germany’s favor.  You can blow a lot of infantry killing my infantry (and maybe Artillery) and I can just pull out my tanks if the battle went bad for me.  However, if the battle goes bad for England, it’s game over London.  I say pull out tanks because I doubt any hit and run will kill any of the defending tanks and might quit before hitting the Artillery for fear of leaving London open.

The transports are not wasted, they can land 26 units in Arkhangelsk, or Novgorod or a mixture really which is what would probably happen, or Russia would have to open a front in the North to prevent it, leaving the south vulnerable to a complex in Romania and transorts in the Black Sea.

I’ve never been a big fan of Sealion anyway, so this new version isn’t a change for me.  I’m quite skilled at keeping UK down with Subs and other tactics.  Spread your subs out, make UK hunt them down individually - UK hates chasing subs down the coasts of Africa.  What is a change is the Mongolia rules for Japan to have to navigate.  I am used be Japan being able to take 5+ IPCs away from Russia each round making Russia easier for Germany to crack.

Here’s how I see it.  England has 2 rounds to build before it can attack on England 3 (prior to Germany 4) with their 3rd round being placed after their combat moves.

England starts with: 3 Infantry, 3 Fighters on itself.

England CAN get 2 more fighters and 1 tactical bomber from the Med bringing it to 3 Infantry, 5 fighters, 1 tactical bomber.

Assumptions:

Germany destroyed the British fighter in Normandy on round 1.
Germany sank the destroyer in SZ 109 with 3 fighters, 3 tactical bombers, 2 submarines and a strategic bomber
Germany sank the destroyer in SZ 106 with 2 submarines
Both British transports are sunk, no Canadian units are brought to England for defense/offense.
London is a higher priority than France for Germany. (France might be allowed to fall to Italy, if necessary.)

England starts with 28 IPC, that’s 9 Infantry Save 1 on Round 1.

Round 2: England has 34 IPC (28 + 5 original territories NO + 1 saved) assume +9 Infantry, +1 Armor, save 1.

England has, on round 3:

Infantry: +3 + 9 +9 = 21
Artillery: +1= 0
Armor: +1 = 1
Fighters: +3 +2 = 5
Tactial Bombers: +1 = 1
Strategic Bombers: 0 = 0
AA Guns: +4 = 4

(AA Guns cannot be used to attack, so they are not relevant to a British hit and run on Scotland.)

Germany brought 13 Infantry, 7 Artillery, 5 Armor, and 1 AA Gun to Scotland.

I will use Frood’s calculator.  If we change the parameters and state that at least 1 defending unit must be alive at the end of the battle we get:

Attacker: 30%
Defender: 70%

Average units left for the Attacker: 2
Average units left for the Defender: 6
Average number of rounds: 4.6

If we alter it so that at least 7 Attacking Units survive (theoretically that would give England 10 Infantry, 1 Armor, 1 Tactical Bomber, 5 Fighters and 4 AA Guns to defend London with) we get:

Attacker: 100%
Defender: 90%

Average units left for the Attacker: 9
Average units left for the Defender: 11
Average number of rounds: 2.5

Therefore, I really do not see Strafing as an option, Jim.  Then again, I believe you originally ran your numbers assuming you could get the 4 ground units from Canada and had the fighter in Normandy.  I am assuming those units do not exist (but the Battleships do exist.)

Oh, more assumptions:

Germany built 2 transports on G1, 10 on G2
Germany got France R1 and Normandy R1
England built as many infantry and armor as possible (up to 10 units maximum capacity, converting extra “infantry” into Armored units until cap was reached)
England built nothing in S. Africa or Canada
England lost objective for all original territories on Italy 1
England got C. Persia on England 1

Eh, to be honest, I’ve only started hitting the Destroyer in SZ 109.  My normal start up used to be to take out the double battleships near England.  Granted, I dont normally go after London anymore, it’s not worth it when 2 submarines can take out all of their income and I have objective there anymore.

Even if you assume England has the extra transport in SZ 109 it shouldn’t skew the numbers too much and England is not attacking: Battleship, Cruiser, 3 Fighters with 3 Fighters it would be suicide.

Jim, I think a hit and run attack by England would be in Germany’s favor.  You can blow a lot of infantry killing my infantry (and maybe Artillery) and I can just pull out my tanks if the battle went bad for me.  However, if the battle goes bad for England, it’s game over London.  I say pull out tanks because I doubt any hit and run will kill any of the defending tanks and might quit before hitting the Artillery for fear of leaving London open.

UK hitting the Germans in Scotland on UK3 will on average kill 21 German units and 15 UK units over 3 rounds, leaving just a few Germans in Scotland.  The battle is in UK’s favour, no question.  The only thing is teh casualties on both sides can be quite varialbe, and there is a risk that UK does too well and ends up wiping out the Germans in Scotland and being forced to remain there, rather than retreat back to London as planned.

@jim010:

Jim, I think a hit and run attack by England would be in Germany’s favor.  You can blow a lot of infantry killing my infantry (and maybe Artillery) and I can just pull out my tanks if the battle went bad for me.  However, if the battle goes bad for England, it’s game over London.  I say pull out tanks because I doubt any hit and run will kill any of the defending tanks and might quit before hitting the Artillery for fear of leaving London open.

UK hitting the Germans in Scotland on UK3 will on average kill 21 German units and 15 UK units over 3 rounds, leaving just a few Germans in Scotland.  The battle is in UK’s favour, no question.  The only thing is teh casualties on both sides can be quite varialbe, and there is a risk that UK does too well and ends up wiping out the Germans in Scotland and being forced to remain there, rather than retreat back to London as planned.

I think you need to check your calculator.  Mine is showing a blow out in Germany’s favor, big time.  That should go down slightly given +1 Infantry, +1 Armor from Canada, but not that big of a change.

Change to: 22 Infantry, 2 Armor, 5 Fighters, 1 Tactical Bomber vs 13 Infantry, 7 Artillery, 5 Armor, 1 AA Gun (and Frood cannot count AA Guns as casualties, so the odds will go up for Germany, it will also count the Tactical Bomber as  a real bomber each time.)

8 British Units must survive is the setting I used. (2 Tanks, 5 Fighters, 1 Tactical Bomber, is what I suspect England would attempt to avoid losing.)

Rounds: 3.0 Rounds
Attacker Odds of Survival: 100%
Defender Odds of Survival: 70.9%
Attacker Units Lost: 19 Infantry, 1 Aircraft (to the AA Gun)
Defender Units Lost: 13 Infantry, 3 Artillery, 1 AA Gun
Attacker Units Remaining: 13 Infantry, 2 Armor, 5 Fighters, 1 Tactical Bomber, 4 AA Guns (including built units 10 infantry)
Defender Units Remaining: 13 Infantry, 12 Artillery, 10 Armor, 5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, Strategic Bomber (including transported units)

Odds for Sea Lion: (counting 3 AA Guns as extra defending infantry for the sake of argument)

Rounds: 1.9 Rounds
Attacker Odds of Survival: 100%
Defender Odds of Survival: 0%
Attacker Units Lost: 13 Infantry, 2 Fighters
Defender Units Lost: 13 Infantry, 2 Armor, 5 Fighters, Tactical Bomber, 4 AA Guns
Attacker Units Remaining: 12 Artillery, 10 Armor, 3 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, Strategic Bomber Defender Units Remaining: None

I see no option possible for the attack on Scotland to be in England’s favor except on the off case where the RNG screws up the results in their favor. (Random Number Generators - AKA Dice).

I believe there are some differences in our assumptions:

1)  You assume both British transports are alive
2)  You count the Normandy fighter as alive
3)  You count Germany with 10 transports (maybe 11)

A)  I assume one British transport is lost.
B)  I assume Normandy was cleared or taken on Germany 1
C)  I count Germany with 13 transports

I could be off on your assumptions, it’s been a while since I was in your thread with the calculations, but I remember there were significant differences between your assumptions and the reality of my games. (Due in part to different attacks and changed attacks, not because you are wrong for your games, just for mine.)

Honestly, I see Sea Lion is exceptionally valid, only delayed by a round, so you can spend round 3 getting enough artilly/armor in position to do the landings.  Either England attacks Scotland depleting their defenders, or leaves Scotland alone boosting your attackers.  Either way, the calculator says England dies and Germany wins and there’s no significant RNG effect (we’re talking Germany winning by at least a dozen units in 2 rounds of play, or 4 rounds of play with dozens of units left.)

Germany can have a MAX of 12 inf, 4 art, 8 tanks now in Scotland on G3.  It is no longer favourable to hit Normandy, Paris and sz106, 111, 112, and 110.  1 battle has to be given up.  That would likely be Normandy, so only 9 TTs bought turn 2 for a total of 12 TTs.

UK can have 23 inf, 4 tanks, 6 fht, 1 tac to hit 22 German units onm UK3.  Germany has NO HOPE of winning that.

Sorry, forgaot UK has 1 art as well.

23 inf, 1 art, 4 tanks, 6 fht, 1 tac vs 12 inf, 4 art, 8 tanks.  Hit for 2-3 rounds, and UK will cause more damage to Germany than they themselves will sustain.  This will bring Germany’s chance of success for G4 Sealion down.

I could be off on your assumptions, it’s been a while since I was in your thread with the calculations, but I remember there were significant differences between your assumptions and the reality of my games. (Due in part to different attacks and changed attacks, not because you are wrong for your games, just for mine.)

I’ve seen your games, and you had not faced a proper UK defense.  I base my numbers on odds that were exhaustively looked at, not assumptions.  They are LIKELY outcomes.  If you run slim 50% battles and they work, good for you, but they will not work consistently over time, and are not sound tactics.  they are risks.

Your numbers are off.  That explains quite a bit!

England does not have the transport in SZ 106, therefore, you cannot get 2 Infantry, Artillery, Armor from Canada to England before the German attack.  (1 round to get to SZ 106, 1 round to get to SZ 109, 1 round to get to SZ 106 and the attack happens right then.)

So that goes 1 Infantry, 1 Artillery from your lineup.

Germany has 13 transports, not 12, so you need to increase the number of Germany defenders.  So Germany has a MAX of 13 Infantry, 7 Artillery, 5 Armor and 1 AA Gun.  England has a MAX of 22 Infantry, 2 Armor, 5 Fighters, 1 Tactical Bomber.

You are adding in an extra fighter from somewhere and bringing two more units from Canada that cannot get there in time.  I think your extra fighter is from Normandy, but that one should be dead on Germany’s first turn.

@jim010:

I could be off on your assumptions, it’s been a while since I was in your thread with the calculations, but I remember there were significant differences between your assumptions and the reality of my games. (Due in part to different attacks and changed attacks, not because you are wrong for your games, just for mine.)

I’ve seen your games, and you had not faced a proper UK defense.  I base my numbers on odds that were exhaustively looked at, not assumptions.  They are LIKELY outcomes.  If you run slim 50% battles and they work, good for you, but they will not work consistently over time, and are not sound tactics.  they are risks.

2 Submarines vs 1 Destroyer is hardly “slim” battles.  You are looking at games where I had no intention of doing Sea Lion.  I am looking at odds calculators of what I would do if I was going to do Sea Lion and mine are all coming back 100% odds of success for Germany by WIDE margines.

Your “exhaustive” studies are short on transports because you assume submarines/destroyers and carriers being built, assumptions I am not playing into.  Run them again, for round 4 this time, assume your destroyer in SZ 106 and the transport were destroyed (no attack on SZ 91), and that Germany has +2 transports over what you assume to reflect the change in purchases on G1.

@Cmdr:

Your numbers are off.  That explains quite a bit!

England does not have the transport in SZ 106, therefore, you cannot get 2 Infantry, Artillery, Armor from Canada to England before the German attack.  (1 round to get to SZ 106, 1 round to get to SZ 109, 1 round to get to SZ 106 and the attack happens right then.)
That TT lives 66% when hitting with 1 sb.  It will likely be there.  If you are hitting with 2 sbs, then you have a sea battle somewhere that is risky, or you are not hitting sz110.

So that goes 1 Infantry, 1 Artillery from your lineup.

Germany has 13 transports, not 12, so you need to increase the number of Germany defenders.  So Germany has a MAX of 13 Infantry, 7 Artillery, 5 Armor and 1 AA Gun.  England has a MAX of 22 Infantry, 2 Armor, 5 Fighters, 1 Tactical Bomber.

If you don’t actually get France, which I was reading in your post, then you have far fewer TTs and can’t do Sealion anyway.

You are adding in an extra fighter from somewhere and bringing two more units from Canada that cannot get there in time.  I think your extra fighter is from Normandy, but that one should be dead on Germany’s first turn.

You can’t hit everything, as I stated before.  You have to give up a battle somewhere to ensure you win what you attack.  I would assume Normandy would be given up, but I see you are leaving sz110 alone, and looks like sz111?  Then your fleet in sz112 is dead, and I don’t have to worry about it anyway.

2 Submarines vs 1 Destroyer is hardly “slim” battles.  You are looking at games where I had no intention of doing Sea Lion.  I am looking at odds calculators of what I would do if I was going to do Sea Lion and mine are all coming back 100% odds of success for Germany by WIDE margines.

Your “exhaustive” studies are short on transports because you assume submarines/destroyers and carriers being built, assumptions I am not playing into.  Run them again, for round 4 this time, assume your destroyer in SZ 106 and the transport were destroyed (no attack on SZ 91), and that Germany has +2 transports over what you assume to reflect the change in purchases on G1.

You have not had to face a proper UK defense.

I am not the only person who pointed out your numbers were flawed in your original discussion on the defense of London.  I am a few pages in and I already see 7 people who say you are miscounting.

Myself
KillOFreeze
Commander Bravo
TheWarNoob
Stalingradski
sargon
gsh34

You started to adjust on page 5 to acknowedge the huge shift of numbers between what you were assuming and what was really happening.  (England down 3 units, Germany up 6 units a 9 unit shift in power.)

Of course, there are more AA Guns in England now, but even that pales in comparison to what Germany can bring.  (Note, I am not saying that they SHOULD bring it, I still contend 2 submarines and cutting off England’s testicles is far superior to Sea Lion in Alpha 3).

Things are even better now that I draw the submarine off SZ 91 to go after the Destroyer/Transport in SZ 106, vastly improving German odds in that field and virtually assuring that the transport in SZ 106 is transporting nothing but sailors to their firey deaths.

There were some wild assumptions that were made starting around page 6, which is why I stopped participating. Stuff like putting huge British fleets in SZ 110 (not going to happen) moving French infantry from N. Africa (not going to happen) etc.  And magical ships started appearing, destroyers that can sink 2 or 3 attacking submarines without dying themselves, etc.  Not claiming you made these, just saying that they appeared by various people.  It was very “switchish” in that things magically got to do two actions or survive insurmountable odds on routine basises etc.  The term heralds back from KAF discussion about AAR where I thoroughly trounced his butt because he suddenly realized that if the attacker had 80% odds in a battle, he was going to win most of the time, and that his fighters from germany couldnt both sink British ships around England AND go fight in Africa in the same round, etc.

So the theory is hardly “settled” in that England can thwart Germany.  What is settled is if Germany does not build appropriately, then England will win.  However, it is also settled that if England does not build properly, than Germany can win better.  In fact, I wouldn’t even bother with Sea Lion unless England did not build properly, as the cost/reward balance is extremely askew in the Allies’ favor.  Not that it is impossible, nor is it improbable, that England will fall on G4.

Then you should keep reading, as the thread goes 13 pages and we went through all possibilties and selected the best.

Tell you what, I won’t bother ‘discussing’ with you  as you ignore likely outcomes.  If you choose to not hit the sz110 and sz111 fleets in favour of the 2 TTs, your call (but not a good one).

Jim,

When, since Alpha 3 came out, have I declared 1 Submarine vs 1 Destroyer?  If you can point one out, I’ll conceed I made the statement, but I honestly believe I have never made that declaration about Sea Lion in Alpha 3.  In Alpha 3, I believe, I have always said 2 Submarines to SZ 106.  Sometimes i waffle between hitting SZ 111/SZ 110 or SZ 109, but I’ve settled on 110/111 in the past 24ish hours.

I dont have to take W. France, I only have to kill the British fighter.  That gives me a lot more leeway in what I have to hit W. France with to “succeed”.  It would be better to hit it, but given the extra round between G3 and G4, I can make up the difference of 1 transport by purchasing it on G3 instead.

G1
Purchase $30
1CV, 2 TRN

DOW: Yugoslavia

CM:

SZ106 (1DD, 1TP)
2 Submarines
Odds:
A-87.4%
D-8.2%

SZ110 (1CA)
2 Submarines, 3 Fighters, 2 Tactical Bombers
Odds:
A-99.2%
D-0.4%
Odds(Scrambling):
A-73.6%
D-20.7%

SZ111 (1DD, 1BB)
Submarine, 2 Fighters, Tactical Bomber, Strategic Bomber
Odds:
A-100%
D-0%
Odds(Scrambling):
A-85.8%
D-9.1%

SZ112 (2CA)
Battleship, Cruiser
Odds:
A-82.2%
D-9.6%

Wfr (2inf, 1tnk, 1fgt)
4 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor
Odds:
A-77.3%
D-19%

France (7inf, 2art, 2tnk, 1fgt, 1 AA Gun)
3 Infantry, 4 Mech, 2 Artillery, 3 Armor, 2 Tactical Bombers
2 Tac
Odds:
A-75.5%
D-22.4%

Yugoslavia (5inf)
9 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 3 Armor
Odds:
A-100%
D-0%

Note:  If any of the attacks go badly for Germany, it is not too late to switch over to Barbarrosa.  Germany would, naturally, invite scrambling.  Sure, the Germans might lose planes, but it’s almost certain England does.

Trickiest battles:
France - due to the AA Gun and shear number of units
SZ 112 - due to ease of RNG screwing you over (for either side)

All the rest are firmly in Germany’s favor.

Yes, I realize that I declared you do not need aircraft to win in France.  That is still true.  In fact, you could switch the two tactical bombers in France to the W. France attack, but I wanted them there because of the Sea Lion attempt, they hit on a 4 if coupled with a tank, so it gives me 2 more punch in France.

If I was going to just castrate the British, I wouldnt even bother with W. France, instead, I would hit SZ 106, SZ 109 and stack my aircraft in Holland.

@jim010:

Then you should keep reading, as the thread goes 13 pages and we went through all possibilties and selected the best.

Tell you what, I won’t bother ‘discussing’ with you  as you ignore likely outcomes.  If you choose to not hit the sz110 and sz111 fleets in favour of the 2 TTs, your call (but not a good one).

Feel free to rack-n-stack the board.  But I think you’ll see it differently when you see the moves and the odds.

1 Less aircraft for England significantly impacts your ability to both strafe, and defend London, while 1 less for Germany has some impact, but minimal.  I doubt England would scramble for any of the above mentioned battles, rather, staying home to preserve their strength.

Also, with a G4 hit, it is possible to build more fleet on G3 to counter any “aircraft” threat.  Actually, it’s theoretically possible to have even more transports for London, if you built some on G3, but I am not holding my breath, there are units that have to be replaced from taking Paris, it’s only after you have all the ones you need that you have time to build more fleet.  So I am going to rest on 13 transports attacking and 1 transport for England (which requires 2 rounds to bring anyone to England).