An incident would not have been needed-Pearl Harbour still would have happened, just without Hitler declaring war on the US. The Battle Of The Atlantic would still have been won by the Allies, it just would have taken longer without the US fully committing to it. US participation would still have increased though, and if Germany did not declare war (which they should not, to make this scenario more likely), the US would have declared war on Germany in 1943. It might have been a different situation with a truce though.
Tunisia 1942-43
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Whats your thoughts on this question?
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Yeah they just would have been longer and bloodier. Experienced Panzers are not happy campers!
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Sicily would have been at least twice as hard, possibly even a failure in the early Italian armored counterattack on the American beaches.
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There is a possibility that Sicily would not have been attacked at all. The Americans were reluctant to start the Italian campaign to start with. They wanted to concentrate on a cross channel invasion in 1943. They were working on Operation Sledgehammer at this time.