Techs???

b_o_,
I’ve watched many opponents roll between 3 (with little concern) and
12 (stubborn) dice [usually one die @ a time, but as many as 3 each turn].
Most of these dictators :) dug their own graves, loaded their own guns,
and blew their own brains out.
Reasonable purchases would have been a better choice and lousy rolls on
my (it happens) or my partner’s part would have changed the game.

D_B_,
@Dirt:

60 INFs = Dead Russia

Don’t you mean “Dead Germany” for the example you’ve discussed?
Though 60 INF (@ 2 IPCs each) v any opponent spells DEATH!

-60 INFs = Dead Russia

I meant if Russia is foolish enough to go for Ind Tech, it means 60 less Russian INFs (minus in front of 60), which spells one dead Russia. :wink:

Sorry for the attempt at humour. :oops:

i thought that joke was funny! :lol:

Thanks harry. I needed that. :D

What joke?

36 rows?

I thought you were originally from Massachusetts
and spelled the way you pronounced “rolls.” :roll: :wink:

Yes, rolls. :oops:

And it should take on average less than 36 rolls to get a particular tech you want as my Excel program (working progress) will demonstrate. Still is a big chunck of IPCs that should be spent on INFs.

Oh-kay!
36 rows it is.

Techs OUT!

Strategy IN!
That’s planning and execution for anyone from West Palm Beach, FL! :P

Well, you should give it a guess once… but not in the opening, exept from USA where your money is a hell lot easier to get than Russia… poor Russia… squeezed up between Germany & Japan…

But fun to play sometimes against newbies! They think that Japan target is USA… they will learn one day!

But until then, b_o_,

KILL! KILL! KILL!
MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

A little math lesson (sorry Xi :wink: ).

Starting with owning no techs, on average, it takes 21 rolls of dice to get the particular tech you want (eg heavy bomber). Here is how:

First the easy part. On average it takes 6 rolls to get a six (let’s call this a tech chance). Now on each tech chance you roll to see what tech you’re getting, so the probability of getting heavy bomber on the first tech chance (let’s call it P(1)) is 1/6. But the probability of not getting it is 5/6 but you get another tech (super sub?). So on the second tech chance you will get heavy bomber 1/5 of the time, given that you miss on the first tech chance. So the probability of getting heavy bomber on the second tech chance (and missing on the first tech chance) is P(2)=(5/6)(1/5)=1/6. Similarly the probability of getting heavy bomber on the third, forth, fifth and sixth tech chance (and missing on the previous tech chances) are:
P(3)=(5/6)(4/5)(1/4)=1/6
P(4)=(5/6)(4/5)(3/4)(1/3)=1/6
P(5)=(5/6)(4/5)(3/4)(2/3)(1/2)=1/6
P(6)=(5/6)(4/5)(3/4)(2/3)(1/2)(1/1)=1/6
So it turns out that you are as likely to get heavy bomber on your first tech chance as the sixth (and last) tech chance, similar to rolling a dice where you are equally likely to get any of the number 1 to 6. Therefore the average number of tech chances you need to get heavy bomber (or any one particular tech you want) is 3.5, much like the average number of IPC damage done on a SBR is 3.5. Now it takes an average of 6 rolls to get one tech chance so that 3.5 tech chance equals 21 rolls. Remember we are talking about averages here.

Phew! Now raise your hand if you know the averge number of dice roll to get heavy bomber starting with axis ad, or if you know what the heck I’m talking about. :roll:

PS
This is first year university probability math. Don’t feel bad if you don’t get it. Just take my word for it. If there’re enough demand, I’ll post the solution to axis ad. :D

No way, hoser! :P

It’s true and it’s confirmed by my Excel tech roll simulator. 8)

What you guys don’t seem to get is the gambling aspect of Technology.

I personally do not gamble, because I don’t want to lose money, but the gamblers’ credo is “don’t gamble what you don’t want to lose”!

There are times in the game when someone w/ a gambler’s heart will want to roll for tech. No matter what the odds, there is a chance that any time you roll for tech–be it one die or 60-- that you will win it. It’s luck and guts, pure & simple.

Now the odds you will get a particular tech are very low, but there are many situations where several different techs would help you in different ways.

The fact is that while theoretically speaking, it takes 60–or whatever–dice to get a particular tech, there is always the possibility that the next roll is the one! That’s called gambling, and if you are a gambler tech may be for you!

Anyone who has been defeated by someone who got Heavy Bombers or LRA or whatever in 3 rolls can tell you that it CAN PAY OFF!

Ozone27

P.S. Not only that, but what is the alternative? Spending 5 IPCs on an ARM may seem like a worthwhile investment, but what if IT scores no hits ever & is eliminated? That can happen w/ the dice–happens all the time in fact. That is a “waste” of money too!

what about all tek with usa until hb?
uk and russia can hold on 3 turns, and once usa has hb, they can bomb germany to submission
also, the cd doesn’t let you roll more than 6 at a time. Is this a real rule? could usa roll 7 the first and second turns?

if usa get’s unlucky, it’s over, but with luck…

what about instead of rr or bid or aa, give germany supersubs and rockets. This would be historically accurate. Then germany would fight for the right to tek, since the odds are really good.

@Inxduk:

the cd doesn’t let you roll more than 6 at a time. Is this a real rule? could usa roll 7 the first and second turns?

In the 2nd edition rules, you can “buy as many as you wish”. I don’t know if that’s true in 3rd edition…
@Inxduk:

if usa get’s unlucky, it’s over, but with luck…

Exactly! Depending on the luck of the dice to win is lazy. :D
@Inxduk:

what about instead of rr or bid or aa, give germany supersubs and rockets. This would be historically accurate. Then germany would fight for the right to tek, since the odds are really good.

I think the Axis is hurt too much w/o rr. Besides does Japan get anything?

@Guest:

You wouldn’t be able to do this on the pc, but you could give Japan two hit battleships. They did have the largest battleships ever built. Not that it would really make a damn bit of difference in the long run.

Yes giving 2HBB only to Japan does give Japan a much needed advantage (to do Pearl) without making the UK navy hard to kill, but I’ve to still play with RR though. I can play w/o ax ad but RR is a must.

How about no new ICs? Should help the Axis a bit…

Ozone27