German buys turn one

[Imperious Leader]

Ahh so its true:

“the threat is greater than its execution”

this is an old chess quote from hypermodern chess ideas.

I believe in this idea.

But this threat is still a dash no?

I mean you buy the transports and let them sit in the baltic or eventually you actually move them and attempt a link?

Is this a plan to exchange IPC with UK to try to slow them down?

Simplification only favors the side that is in the lead and i dont think that has been established yet.

[Guest]

Forgive me if I do not go in to details.

I have yet to be able to fully implement the concept I have in mind for Germany, and I may need it in the Tournament :-)

[Guest]

Also i dont know why you keep bringing up Crazy straw

I’m just surprisingly popular that way.  Chicks dig my mathematical prowess and calculator watch.  Squire digs my sarcasm.

But just like I’ve said to you, (and [crazystraw]) writing a “paper” on this stuff will only bring problems. You will be misleading people, as your assumptions about the best/risky moves would be flawed. The moves listed will contain many assumptions, many of which could be wrong and countered.

I gotta disagree with this.  Analysis starts with drawing some constraints and analyzing specific phenomena.  Anyone who thinks 10 pages of analysis should deliver perfection is expecting too much of 10 pages.  But, conversely, anyone who thinks you can’t learn something quite useful in 10 pages is underestimating the nature of analysis.

I think what you should get out of a good analysis is either 1) a good new idea 2) a bad idea to avoid or 3) the general contours of a particular issue.  Start with an analysis of a specific move and “riff” off it.  Improvise.  Or know what your opponent is likely going to attempt when you see him implempenting elements of strategy.  But just to say an analysis is incomplete is itself an incomplete assessment of what the analysis is trying to do.

Peace

[NoMercy]

Wow this topic is huge now.

what exactly is going on with the German Navy build? or channel dash?

because on G2 the baltic and med fleet can link up between SE and Algeria (SZ 13)  and the allies cannot stop this. I’m not saying much of the baltic fleet will make it, but the subs will because you can’t kill them all on turn 1

[Guest]

@jsp4563:

Then let’s settle it here and now, online. I’ll set up the thread. LHTR, No Tech, No NA’s.

jsp, that’s exactly what happened in the thread I linked to earlier.  http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=8335.0

This is what you wrote:

I don’t think any decent allied player would allow germany to unite their fleet in sz7.  It’s easy to spot, and easily countered.

What then proceeded was a breakdown of the major counter options.  Given the caveat of generally standard dice, we covered:

1. Algerian landing uniting UK & US in Z12.  This was to prevent the move of the Med fleet to Z07 on R2.  It was not a move that favored the Allies and a decent player wouldn’t do it.
2. The second way to “prevent” the unification was to prepare a counterattack that makes the unification unfavorable to the Axis.  A counterattack on the carrier was deemed too expensive.  A counterattack on the 3tra German build was doable but to the favor of the Axis costwise.
3. The third option was the Z06 block.  That sucked with a mighty sucking power.

Lots of folks helped with that thread and many good ideas were batted around.  But no one came up with a Magic Bullet that was clearly a great way to counter the German United Fleet.

Since that thread you now have a 4th method?  Lay it out.

Thanks

[squirecam]

@jsp4563:

@squirecam:

@jsp4563:

Then let’s settle it here and now, online. I’ll set up the thread. LHTR, No Tech, No NA’s.

No dude. I gave you the moves. You said you had a simple counter. Post the counter, like you said you could.

If its so simple, what’s stopping you???

Typical bully, when confronted you back down.  If you’re so convinced that you’re right why not prove it.  The thread is open, or are you not man enough to stand up to a challenge?

Thats the thing. I have proven it.

You have yet to post a simple block. The simple block you claimed to have. The 2 you posted did not adequately protect london.

So what changed between page 3 and now. Why cant you post this very simple strategy? You know exactly my placement.

[DarthMaximus]

Russia CAN reinforce London.

That is all.

[squirecam]

@DarthMaximus:

Russia CAN reinforce London.

That is all.

Yes, if russia has precognition.  That move, though helpful, does not “guarantee” anything. I’m simply looking for the “simple” block maneuver I was promised. The one that would 100% work for JSP. Because so far it hasnt appeared.

[Guest]

I still supprt the SZ6 block, with a US counter in US2 using naval and air units.

Sure, you may link some fleet units in G2, but you won;t have much fleet left when G3 rolls around.  And the cost in Africa is high, as is the cost of tying up the Luftwaffe on sea duty for 2-3 consecutive turns.

With an SZ6 block, Germany faces:
2 TRN, 1 SUB, 1 BB, 1 AC, 2 FIG in SZ6
Sure, Germany can kill it, at the cost of their Baltic fleet, and some of their AF.
And the Allies can prevent the Med Fleet from joining in the battle for a cost of 8 US IPC’s (and land troops in Africa at the same time).
And you can still do a USA counter with 1-2 FIGs, 1 BOM, 1-2 TRN, and a DST on whatever Germany has left on the seas.

And when it i all said and done, what has Germany accomplished?  Stopped US and UK landing in Europe for 1-2 turns?  At the expense of their G1 build, which means Russia SHOULD have Balkans and Eastern at the end of R2.  I’ll take that trade as the Allies.  Without transports, the German Navy is no threat to the Allies.  And they cannot face the Royal Navy in SZ6 on G2 and get through it with living TRNs, unless they want to sacrifice AF in the process.  In which case UK goes INF for a UK2 build and lets Russia keep Germany pinned, THEN the US and UK do joint fleet in Turn 3, and then just go after Germany at will.

Of course, those US forces are advancing from libya, and the Brits are harassing the remaining German forces in Africa all the while, and with the Med Fleet dead somewhere in the Atlantic, no more German forces are heading for Africa…

[squirecam]

@Imperious:

As far as the channel dash is concerned somebody who believes in it tell us exactly how you do it.

another person can play UK/ USA and demonstrate how he counters this.

Thats way we all see the how and why.

I suspect JSP would like to participate and possible Squirecam or ncscswitch or even Crazy Straw himself?

I have posted. med fleet is at gibraltar. Air is at WE. AC + 3 transports in baltic. What is UK’s move that will guarantee neither the G fleet merges, nor london falls.

[squirecam]

@ncscswitch:

I still supprt the SZ6 block, with a US counter in US2 using naval and air units.

Sure, you may link some fleet units in G2, but you won;t have much fleet left when G3 rolls around.  And the cost in Africa is high, as is the cost of tying up the Luftwaffe on sea duty for 2-3 consecutive turns.

With an SZ6 block, Germany faces:
2 TRN, 1 SUB, 1 BB, 1 AC, 2 FIG in SZ6
Sure, Germany can kill it, at the cost of their Baltic fleet, and some of their AF.
And the Allies can prevent the Med Fleet from joining in the battle for a cost of 8 US IPC’s (and land troops in Africa at the same time).
And you can still do a USA counter with 1-2 FIGs, 1 BOM, 1-2 TRN, and a DST on whatever Germany has left on the seas.

1 - again, like the discussion with you back in that thread, the point JSP made was he could 100% prevent a merge and london from falling. Not a counter. Prevent the merge.

2 - His posted strategy left london taken by the axis. So not a good block by my standards.

3- Your SZ 6 fleet has a D of 19. The Germans can attack with DD, 2 subs and 1-2 transports for fodder, along with 6 fighters and bomber. That is 29 vs 19. Germany will have an overwhelming advantage. The sub will take the algeria transport. This leaves a merged Germany fleet in SZ 7 with a loaded AC, BB, 2 transports. UK has no fleet. The USA cannot attack that successfully.Â

[Guest]

Squire,

Here is your block…

UK builds 1 AC, 1 TRN, 2 INF on UK1
1 ARM ECan to UK
Stages fleet plus existing FIGs in SZ6.

USA1:
1 TRn with 2 land units to SZ12 offload to Algeria
1 TRN, 1 DST to SZ8 with 2 land units.
1 FIG, 1 BOM EUS to UK

USSR2:  SUB to SZ6.

Now…
Your Med fleet cannot engage in combat moves against the Allied fleet, only the lone TRN in SZ12, so they can’t link until G3 (unless you NCM to SZ7)
Your Baltic Fleet cannot get past the UK fleet (except SUBs) without combat.

SZ6 battle:
Allies:  1 TRN, 1 SUB, 1 BB, 1 AC, 2 FIG
Axis:  4 TRN, 2 SUB, 1 DST, 1 AC, 5 FIGs (1 dead in Ukraine), 1 BOM

Saving your loaded TRNs, you win that battle 95% of the time, with an average 4 TRN, 2 FIG, 1 BOM, 1 AC, 1 DST.

Now the London Battle:
Allies have:  4 INF (UK), 1 INF (USA), 1 ART (UK), 2 ARM (UK), 1 ARM (USA), 1 FIG (USA), 1 BOM (USA), 1 AA (UK)
Axis lands 4 INF, 4 ARM

Axis has a 2.4% chance of taking London.

If you pull just 1 FIG off the Naval battle to add to the London fight:
SZ6:  87% Axis win
London:  8.6% Axis Win

2 FIGs to London:
SZ6: 64%
London:  21%

3 FIGs to London:
SZ6:  41% (and saving the Loaded TRNs leaves you with nothing to invade with in most cases)
London:  36.5%

So you have somewhere around a 1 in 4 chance to take London if the allies do a SZ6 primary block and a SZ12 TRN block.

And if Germany loses, they are out their air force AND navy on G2.  Allied win.

I’ll take those odds as the Allies :-D

As for blcoking a link…
With battles in both SZ12 and SZ6, you can link SOME of your fleet in SZ7, but not all of it.  And if you can’t link it all, it is DEAD.  So why bother to merge it if it dies immediately anyway?

[Guest]

Odds are actually worse for Germany than I posted… there are 2 UK TRNs in SZ6, not 1 as I showed in the sims.

[squirecam]

@ncscswitch:

Squire,

Here is your block…

UK builds 1 AC, 1 TRN, 2 INF on UK1
1 ARM ECan to UK
Stages fleet plus existing FIGs in SZ6.

USA1:
1 TRn with 2 land units to SZ12 offload to Algeria
1 TRN, 1 DST to SZ8 with 2 land units.
1 FIG, 1 BOM EUS to UK

USSR2:  SUB to SZ6.

1 - my hypo presumes 6 fighters live. (assume suitable bid to ukraine if necessary to stop your attack)
2 - You do not attack BOTH fleet and London. It is either/or. I went LOndon because JSP put his blocking fleet in SZ7. Which left UK wide open.
3 - You have a defense of 19 (avg 3 hits) vs German air, DD, 2 subs 2 trans for fodder. Thats 29 (avg 5 hits). R1 UK loses BB, 3 trans, sub. Germany loses 2 trans sub. UK has 4 hits left, which is german avg hits round 2.   UK hits 2-3 back.

Your posted USA (DD fighter bomber 1 trans) cannot beat a loaded AC, BB, 2 transports in SZ 7.

[Imperious Leader]

Whether or not the block can defeat the channel dash or the Germans do survive with a crushed fleet after all is said and done the axis are in a worse position than before because they focused alot of money on naval units while ignoring the Soviets. Its like a German KBF rather than KRF. Dont you chaps agree that if the Brits maintain a hold on Britian at the end of the day then they are holding better cards in the end. They forced germany to waste a turns worth of purchase to be able to join in the best case a few extra naval units and at worst lose the entire nayl in a single afternoon.

It reminds me of Admiral Jellico at Jutland and the First Sea Lord Winston Churchill who had famously remarked that Jellicoe was “the only commander on either side capable of losing the war in a single afternoon.”

I too feel that it may work the the risk is too great compared to the rewards.

Of course if germany gets a 8 bid they buy that tranny and invade on G1 thats a much better storyline.

Squirecam i will look at your plan and compare it with switch.

[squirecam]

@Imperious:

Whether or not the block can defeat the channel dash or the Germans do survive with a crushed fleet after all is said and done the axis are in a worse position than before because they focused alot of money on naval units while ignoring the Soviets. Its like a German KBF rather than KRF. Dont you chaps agree that if the Brits maintain a hold on Britian at the end of the day then they are holding better cards in the end. They forced germany to waste a turns worth of purchase to be able to join in the best case a few extra naval units and at worst lose the entire nayl in a single afternoon.

A partial list of advantages:

1 - No UK IC. This is important in tournament games.
2 - No UK fleet. Germany still has one. This will cause a further delay to the UK.
3 - USA is building sea units to kill the german fleet, not transports.
4 - UK/USSR loses 92 IPC worth of sea units, for Germany’s 44-54 loss.

And, once again, this discussion is focused on 2 issues. Can a block be found that prevents a merged fleet (even a weakened “fleet”) and also guarantees london is safe.

So far, that “simple” strategy still has not been posted. (Yes, there is a precog way which I can post)

[Imperious Leader]

No Mercy:

what exactly is going on with the German Navy build? or channel dash?

because on G2 the baltic and med fleet can link up between SE and Algeria (SZ 13)  and the allies cannot stop this. I’m not saying much of the baltic fleet will make it, but the subs will because you can’t kill them all on turn 1

This may be true, while who has lost more at the end of the campaign is the real question

1. does failing the capture of London lead to a worse german position?

2. does this investment lead to problems down the road with money not spent on the real enemy russia?

3. Does the exchange and failure at least buy any time (tempo) for germany who now left the Baltic and has a rag fleet to limp back to the medd.

4. if it buys time for germany is the cost more value than the time or the other way around?

follow this on your map with the given moves by switch/JSP  and crazy straw

[jsp4563]

Let’s just back track for a second.  My original post on G2 fleet unification was as follows:

@jsp4563:

G2 fleet unification in SZ7-I have yet to have an opponent pull this off.  As the allied player I can see it coming and no allied player worth his salt would allow it (IMHO) and it is easily countered.

This is based on an “Actual Game”.  Squire wants to claim that it is possible but his strategy for doing so is completely unrealistic in real game play.  What German player is going to forgo an attack on Egypt and the UK med DD allowing the UK Indian fleet to swoop into the Med.  It’s ridiculous.  Squire knows this, that’s why he won’t “Step up to the MIC”.

[Imperious Leader]

Well you dont have to bait him either…

I think the usual moves have to occur regardless

1 bom, 3 fighter and sub on west medd BB

BB, tranny, fighter on uk DD

land stuff and 2 fighters with lybia against egypt.

The attacks in russia depend on what they did so ill leave them out right now.

If egypt does not fall you are dealing with another uK fighter to reinforce UK carrier and if you leave the DD alone then the brits have a much greater threat against japan.

If you ignore egypt you may expect a UK factory soon in India ( after the resolution of the naval battles)

[squirecam]

@jsp4563:

Let’s just back track for a second.  My original post on G2 fleet unification was as follows:

@jsp4563:

G2 fleet unification in SZ7-I have yet to have an opponent pull this off.  As the allied player I can see it coming and no allied player worth his salt would allow it (IMHO) and it is easily countered.

This is based on an “Actual Game”.  Squire wants to claim that it is possible but his strategy for doing so is completely unrealistic in real game play.  What German player is going to forgo an attack on Egypt and the UK med DD allowing the UK Indian fleet to swoop into the Med.  It’s ridiculous.  Squire knows this, that’s why he won’t “Step up to the MIC”.

1 - This is why you have a bid.
2 - You can attack egypt and still go west with the med fleet.
3 - Its not un realistic in “real” play.

And the only one who has refused to “step up” and post their strategy is you.