I would love the Japanese to give me a chance to engage that early in the game! Whatever damage I can inflict will hurt Japan and limit it’s options.
So far I have played AAP about 10 times. Before you start saying that I should play some more to have a serious opinion about AAP, I should tell you that I have played the original A&A countless times for over 10 years. I consider myself better than average with odds and strategy. I made a serious study of A&A, wrote my own odds calculators, etc. The fun for me is not who will win the game but how it is done. In my opinion the Allies need never loose if they use a specific strategy. I seldom use this strategy because it is a sure winner and the game is not much fun. The trick is to win in other ways.
I know that this experience doesn’t make me an expert on AAP strategies. Of course I need to try all possible strategies before I have a final verdict. So that could take some more years… But so far I think I have a pretty could grasp of the basics of the game.
Only 1 AAP game has been lost by Japan by someone new to the game, 1 has been won by Japan by taking India. For the rest Japan wins on VP’s. Also in most games I can barely hold on to India when I play the Allies. It takes all my resources to hold it, and even then I feel I need to be lucky in some crucial battles.
I consider giving any of the convoy centre income to Australia to great a risk. That is even without a full-scale attack including Japan’s navy! I have not tried that myself or played anyone who tried it on me.
On the other end Japan is stalling the USA fleet and regrouping their own fleet on the Philippines or Caroline’s on round 2 or 3. Japan is already having 4 VP/turn. So you need to destroy Japan’s navy and use any means to get the VP’s down at that time. If Japan plays ideally then the VP’s count 3,4,4,4,4,4 = 23 = 6 turns. I don’t play for VP’s in the first turn, I destroy as much material as I can. The ideal run of VP’s will not be achieved by Japan, but it will be close.
So the Allies/USA need to get the convoy routes in turn 3 or 4 at the latest. In order to do that you need to sail directly! Then you could reach for instance the Caroline’s in turn 2 and get any of your fleet reinforcements there by using the harbour. In turn 3 you could get to the Philippines and start taking back convoy routes in a serious manner.
As you probably have noticed I completely neglected Japan’s navy in this scenario. And there you have the problem: even with the USA IPC advantage you cannot build up a fleet that matches Japan’s in that short a time. If you go in too early you get your ass kicked so badly that even the USA economic power cannot compensate for it. If you go in at the right time then at best you destroy each other which gives Japan enough time to gather enough VP’s because the USA has to rebuild. That can still be partly countered or at least slowed down by Japan’s new reinforcements or taskforces/airforces coming back from Sumatra/India area. Remember that they have also around 40 IPC/turn to spend. Of course in the end the USA will win, but it will always be to late. And if you wait with engaging the Japan navy, well then you are too late…
With the USA I lost several showdowns on the Philippines with this way of playing, building several types of fleets (Carriers, subs, battleships), and with the help of UK Always the Japan navy had enough capital warships left to quickly build a new taskforce. But I don’t see any other way of getting there in time. In all of those cases I considered myself lucky to be able to advance that quickly: my opponents did not put up the best fight they could.
Of course I will try a direct attack on Japan, the bomber strategy, and going South to Australia. But I don’t believe that these strategies will be successful against any experienced opponent because they do not change the basic outline of what I have just sketched. The bomber strategy could only work when Japan uses his navy incorrectly. Otherwise I feel it is impossible to decrease the size of the Japanese fleet with bombers so that you can handle it with a USA fleet followed by the capture of the convoy routes, again given the time limit.
To sum up: so far I feel that the Allies have a serious problem whereas the Japanese player has even more options to win the game, which I have not yet experienced. Like an all out attack on India or Australia, using stalling, etc.
Therefore, I would welcome any opportunity to get to Japan’s fleet before it regroups. If it will be enough is another matter….