So a friend and I had a argument today over whether or not the Japanese would have been able to pull off a succesful invasion of the Western United States. I told him no and here where my reasons why. First off Japan would have to have secured Midway Island, and the Hawaiian Island to act as a “stopping point” for supplies if they ever landed an invasion force. This task onto itself would have required MAJOR naval, air, and ground conflict. In my opinion the entire Pacific US fleet would have to have been sunk to accomplish this. Second and this goes with the first Japan would have needed to sink all or most of our carriers. My third argument was due to the vast distance from Japan to the Western US the Japanese would at BEST occupy pockets along the West coast and major cities such as San Francisco or Los Angles. Are my arguments valid? or could the Japanese have push us all the way to Washington DC?
P.S. Would the Japanese ever have considered invading Canada?
The allies took 3 years of building up in England for D-Day. They had to cross about 20-30 miles of ocean, not 4000-5000 miles. Germany was a bit tied up with 10 million angry russian soldiers breathing down their neck, no such distractions existed in the Americas. The landing was in France which was as much as the French are….a friendly if not allied nation albeit under occupation. The D-Day landing was a surprise to the Germans in that they didn’t know what day or even week it was going to occur. The Japs would have been seen weeks ahead, their progress followed by the hour. US subs were VERY effective in the Pacific for both intelligence and attack. So with a million % advantage over a Jap invasion, the allies were lucky D-Day was not a disaster. It’s pretty much absurd
As for Canada, they would have to march 3000 miles inland before they affected Canada’s heavy industry and ability to fight the war.
They could manage a few islands off Alaska, how’d that work for 'em!
Japan could do it but it would take about 50 years to prepare for that.
All they can do is sink a large ocean liner in the panama canal and take Hawaii. Anything else would be suicide. They can’t even beat China and they were a 5th rate nation in 1940.
The allies took 3 years of building up in England for D-Day. They had to cross about 20-30 miles of ocean, not 4000-5000 miles. Germany was a bit tied up with 10 million angry russian soldiers breathing down their neck, no such distractions existed in the Americas. The landing was in France which was as much as the French are….a friendly if not allied nation albeit under occupation. The D-Day landing was a surprise to the Germans in that they didn’t know what day or even week it was going to occur. The Japs would have been seen weeks ahead, their progress followed by the hour. US subs were VERY effective in the Pacific for both intelligence and attack. So with a million % advantage over a Jap invasion, the allies were lucky D-Day was not a disaster. It’s pretty much absurd
As for Canada, they would have to march 3000 miles inland before they affected Canada’s heavy industry and ability to fight the war.
They could manage a few islands off Alaska, how’d that work for 'em!
@Imperious:
Japan could do it but it would take about 50 years to prepare for that.
All they can do is sink a large ocean liner in the panama canal and take Hawaii. Anything else would be suicide. They can’t even beat China and they were a 5th rate nation in 1940.
Pretty much what I was thinking and ya logistics would have been a nightmare.
‘Logistics’ for Japan are Bicycles and Sandals. They totally lacked in mechanization and modern warfare on land. They basically ‘played’ to the level of their opposition, which was primarily backward low level nations substituting Bushido bravery for a proper military doctrine.
Japan could land small bands of men on the U.S coast by submarine, but that would be the limit to a sucessful operation on the West Coast.
@Imperious:
Japan could do it but it would take about 50 years to prepare for that.
50 years of making babies! :D
More like Germany possibly winning against Russia and England and after occupation of Europe and Africa for 40 years and consolidation, sending an invasion force to California protected by Japanese navy.
The average American citizen is better armed than the average Jap soldier then and most nations soldiers now. Most armed Americans I know are set up to keep their own government in check, I would imagine they would have given the Japanese army a heck of a fight for every square inch.
Even if the entire world had fallen to the Axis save the Americas, no invasion could occur for 100 years, long long after the advent of nukes which would have rendered a nuclear stalemate as we had with the Russians.
The Japs nor Nazis ever contemplated an invasion of the US, probably because it just couldn’t be done, period.
Another thing to remember is that the campaigns launched by Japan in December 1941 in Southeast Asia, the DEI, the Philippines, New Guinea and the Central Pacific were carried out by the relatively small forces the Japanese were able to scrape together for that purpose, since a large part of Japan’s military manpower was tied up in China at the time. Adding the conquest of the continental U.S. to the list of territories that these small forces had to occupy would simply not have been credible. Note that the Japanese forces allocated to the southwest Pacific never even managed to fully secure New Guinea or the Solomons, which were very small and very close to Japan compared to the U.S. and thus were much easier targets.
Several people have made some solid points in this thread. I’ll give my own summary of why a Japanese invasion was not a real possibility. (While acknowledging that some of the below points have been made already.)
Problem 1: Japan had fewer people than the U.S., which puts a lower ceiling on its army size than on America’s army.
Problem 2: the Japanese Army was significantly less modern and less well-equipped than the American Army. During WWII, Japan produced less than 3,000 tanks, compared to 88,000 tanks for the United States. Compounding that problem was that Japan’s tanks were mostly obsolete light tanks which could not penetrate the armor of Shermans. The U.S. produced 257,000 artillery pieces during WWII, compared to just 13,000 for Japan. America’s artillery were better than Japan’s, especially after the U.S. started using proximity fused shells. The U.S. produced 325,000 military aircraft during WWII, compared to 76,000 for Japan. Later in the war, the U.S. began enjoying a qualitative advantage in that area as well.
Problem 3: Japan’s army used worse tactics than the American Army (as alluded to by Imperious Leader). U.S. infantry were about 80% as combat-effective as their German counterparts, making the U.S. Army one of the best in the world. (The British were 50% as effective as the Germans, the Soviets about 33% as effective, and the Italians were less effective than the Soviets.) In battles between Japanese and American soldiers, the U.S. generally achieved a 2:1 - 4:1 exchange ratio, with the ratio going in the U.S.'s favor. In the battle of Guadalcanal, Japan repeatedly threw waves of its infantry into the teeth of American machine gun defenses. Major Western nations had learned not to do this during WWI.
Problem 4: Japan’s army was tied down by a large number of other commitments. CWO Marc mentioned that a large portion of the Japanese Army was preoccupied by its bloody and unwinnable war in China. In addition, the Japanese had to maintain a large force in Manchuria to guard against a Soviet invasion. They also had to garrison the various islands and Southeast Asian land territory they had conquered, and protect that territory against British forces in India and Australia.
Problem 5: (which you alluded to). A successful invasion would have required near-complete Japanese naval supremacy in the Pacific. That supremacy would have been increasingly difficult to attain as the war went on, due to America’s faster rate of naval production than Japan.
Problem 6 (which Malachi Crunch pointed out). The D-Day invasion was very difficult for the Allies even though they only had to cross 30 miles of ocean. Japan would have had to cross a much larger distance. Its productive capacity was much less than that of the U.S., so building up the needed invasion fleet + transport capacity would have been difficult or impossible.
Problem 7 (pointed out by Imperious Leader). Once the invasion force had arrived, supplying it would have been very difficult or impossible; especially after it had begun making significant inland penetration. The supply line (which I assume would stretch all the way back to Japan) would be insanely long. Japan’s industrial capacity was wholly inadequate to provide the naval transports and military trucks required to make that supply line work.
It’s impossible for me to imagine the Japanese overcoming these problems and successfully invading the United States.
Japan had no incentive to taking over North America. They just wanted the Westerners out of the Pacific and Asia.
In fact, they wanted to remain at peace with the United States as a trading partner. Japanese Exports to the United States were very large and growing before the 1940s (Like Chinese Manufacturing today). It was almost a JOKE of the time in the pre-war years that almost everything was being “Made in Japan”.
I can’t recall who told me this story, but sometime after WWII a veteran was visiting Arlington National Cemetary and admiring the Marine Corps War Memorial – the big bronze statue modeled on the famous photo of the flag-raising on Mount Suribachi. A vendor was selling miniature replicas of the statue, one of which he bought. What did he find written under the base? “Made in Japan.”
It was almost a JOKE of the time in the pre-war years that almost everything was being “Made in Japan”.
Are you sure about that? As far as I know, the surge of products “Made in Japan” on the western markets, was a post-war phenomenon. A quick search brings up the following information:
“From 1932 until 1940, for the first time, U.S. exports to Japan exceeded imports from Japan” and “Since 1965, Japan has had a trade surplus with the United States.” (from http://salempress.com/Store/samples/american_business/american_business_japanese.htm)
and also:
“The US Customs Bureau in the 1940s stated that items manufactured or produced in Japan should be properly marked to indicate their origin with one of the following tags: “Japan”, “Made In Japan”, “Occupied Japan”, or “Made In Occupied Japan”” (from http://knol.google.com/k/gary-greco/made-in-japan/br6tphsp0a9s/2#).
So if Japan had a trade deficit with the US between 1932 and 1965, and the label “Made in Japan” itself was only introduced in the 1940’s, it seems unlikely that such products were very common on the US market in the pre-war years.
Could Japan have invaded Noth America? probably, but only under the right circumstances.
If Japan were to make the invasion of the US a major objective, and use forces drawn from China, Manchuria and scale down their invasions of the territories they historically did, they might have the manpower to do it. The pre-war US army was made up of a few WW1 vets and raw green recuits as opposed to the veteran, and much burtalized, Japanese army of that time. The US army at the very out break of the war was 17th in the world in terms of size with only around 174,000 regulars and 200,000 in the national guard. This force was deployed regionaly across the massive continental US with a large number of the reuglars being used in places like the Philippines.
The pre-war US army had none of the technical advantages it would have by the mid-stages of the war, such as proximity fuses and superior aircraft. Most of the artillery in service with the US at the out-break of the war was inter-war 1920’s models and WW1 hold overs. In fact when the Second World war opened most US troops were armed with the bolt action Springfield '03 as opposed the iconic M1 Garand that came to replace it. The US was also woefully under equipped in terms of tanks and mechanized transport. So in terms of equipment between the 2 armies the Japanese and US forces are near even, with Japan possessing the experiance edge, while the US had the logistical edge
(I will finnish as soon as I get home from work!!!)
The US was full of personal trucks and cars, the continent had a huge railroad network. Private citizens possessed more firearms than the entire of Japan and its armed forces. No, its just silly to imagine a Japanese navy delivering an invasion force.
Could Japan have invaded Noth America? probably, but only under the right circumstances.
If Japan were to make the invasion of the US a major objective, and use forces drawn from China, Manchuria and scale down their invasions of the territories they historically did, they might have the manpower to do it. The pre-war US army was made up of a few WW1 vets and raw green recuits as opposed to the veteran, and much burtalized, Japanese army of that time. The US army at the very out break of the war was 17th in the world in terms of size with only around 174,000 regulars and 200,000 in the national guard. This force was deployed regionaly across the massive continental US with a large number of the reuglars being used in places like the Philippines.
The pre-war US army had none of the technical advantages it would have by the mid-stages of the war, such as proximity fuses and superior aircraft. Most of the artillery in service with the US at the out-break of the war was inter-war 1920’s models and WW1 hold overs. In fact when the Second World war opened most US troops were armed with the bolt action Springfield '03 as opposed the iconic M1 Garand that came to replace it. The US was also woefully under equipped in terms of tanks and mechanized transport. So in terms of equipment between the 2 armies the Japanese and US forces are near even, with Japan possessing the experiance edge, while the US had the logistical edge
(I will finnish as soon as I get home from work!!!)
Even while technically neutral, the U.S. was gradually entering wartime mode on several levels. 1) It was militarizing its economy and economic output. 2) Its rules of engagement were becoming increasingly belligerent, especially in the North Atlantic, 3) It had begun formulating joint war aims with the other Allies, and 4) It had adopted a broad series of measures intended to provoke a Japanese attack.
The U.S. was still technically at peace until December of 1941. In 1940, the U.S. produced 6,000 military aircraft, compared to 5,000 for Japan, 10,000 for Germany, and 15,000 for the U.K. In 1941–while still at peace–American military aircraft production jumped to 19,000 per year. This was more than the entire Axis!
It experienced a similar increase in its rate of production of tanks. In 1940, the U.S. produced 359 light tanks and only six medium tanks. In 1941, it produced 2,600 light tanks and 1,400 medium tanks.
Given that Japan did not attack Pearl Harbor until December of 1941, it could not realistically have invaded the U.S. until sometime in 1942. America experienced another dramatic jump in its military production between '41 and '42. It produced 48,000 military aircraft in '42, as opposed to the 19,000 it had made in '41. Japanese military aircraft production for '42 was less than 9,000. The U.S. produced 11,000 light tanks and 16,000 medium tanks in '42. Japan produced just 2,500 tanks and armored fighting vehicles during the entire war!
You are correct to assert that the U.S. would have been most vulnerable to invasion early in the war. However, Japan lacked the transport or logistic capacity necessary to exploit that window of opportunity. Moreover, that window closed very quickly–had begun closing long before the Pearl Harbor attack had been launched.
Japan had no incentive to taking over North America. They just wanted the Westerners out of the Pacific and Asia.
In fact, they wanted to remain at peace with the United States as a trading partner. Japanese Exports to the United States were very large and growing before the 1940s (Like Chinese Manufacturing today). It was almost a JOKE of the time in the pre-war years that almost everything was being “Made in Japan”.
Why did Japan choose to attack them then, why didn’t they wait until Britain was completely killed in Asia?
I found their invasion plan:
Hey Dylan. It went like this. Japan was being VERY brutal in China in the late 30s and early 40s, google ‘rape of nanking’. Believe it or not, the US produced I believe the majority of the worlds oil at the time. So, the US cut of the oil to Japan about 6 months before Pearl I think. Japan knew without oil they were doomed. So, the hope was, hit Pearl to buy time, take over the pacific rim around Japan including the dutch east indies to get the oil they required. They figured they could get it all done and then come to peace terms with the US, you stay on your side, we on our side. Yamamoto knew the US psyche and knew Pearl would only stir up a hornets nest but like a good soldier/sailer he took his orders and did his best.
