Following is for Revised Edition:
Personally, I never go for Pearl Harbor. Ever.
My philosophy goes something like this - US wants to build Pacific fleet? Go for it. My planes cost me 10 IPC and attack at 3. The best US can do to beef up Pacific fleet is build more aircraft carriers, right? (b/c they need to defend against Japanese fighters). But aircraft carriers are slow.
Let’s say first turn U.S. gets two aircraft carriers. Turn two, it has three aircraft carriers if you don’t do Pearl Harbor. It flies over a “buncha” planes. Presto, instant navy with six fighters. Now, what’s it gonna do with that? Attack your islands? Well, OK. But you have two battleships and two aircraft carriers, plus a lot of fighters yourself. If you chose to build three transports for Japan first turn (which I recommend, to help attack east Asia), your fleet is even bigger.
So yeah, eventually, U.S. will beat the stuffing out of the Jap fleet. But it’ll require considerable time and material, by which time you ought to have beat up East Asia considerably. If U.S. concentrated on building Pacific up, that means that there’s less pressure on Germany in the Atlantic.
So, I’d say - even if U.S. DOES build Pacific Fleet, it’s good for Japan to just ignore Pearl Harbor to concentrate on Asia.
If U.S. DOESN’T build Pacific Fleet, it’s imperative for Japan to hit east Asia anyways. U.S. is going to send stuff across the Atlantic to the sea zone west of Britain, threatening Norway and Western Europe. Which means that Germany has to send some forces to defend, which slows down the attack on Russia, which means that Japan has to pick up some of the slack.
But I will say that some people go for Pearl Harbor and make it work for 'em. Losing that aircraft carrier does slow the U.S. a teeny bit. Personally, though, I prefer to use battleships for support shots in amphibious landings . . .