So far, it’s a Japan victory every time, with J1 attack or not. The cause is because the US cannot break the SZ6 fleet, so I’ve come up with some ideas to help the Allies, primarily involving bypassing a Japanese invasion.
1/ Japan is almost certainly going to build a MIC in Kwangtung or Kiangsu. The US could build a growing fleet that parks itself in Hawaii, a fleet that includes 6 or 7 transports with 1 tank and infantry each & 4 bombard capable craft. The japs will think that force is meant for Japan. But it’s actually meant for an Asian invasion, with eyes on the MIC.
After the fleet is sizable enough, the US examines the Asian landscape to verify it’s pretty well thinned and appropriate for an invasion. At that point, the fleet moves to Marianas. If it waited until Britain fell, It could take over the MIC in Kwangtung, only giving it back to the brits after the US is secure in Korea with another MIC. If the MIC was in Kiangsu, that wont help the Allies, but Japan would think that Kiangsu is the intended target (and divert forces or IPC’s accordingly). In reality, the US could do many things with this fleet, even though it takes two turns from Hawaii to make it happen. It could still attack Japan while the transports invade a less important Asian province, or the transports could turn back entirely if it doesnt look right, or so could the whole fleet. Or the phillipines could be easily retaken.
The point is, with 9 provinces in range of the Marianas fleet, the japs wont know what the US is planning, creating confusion. The best parts about this plan is that it doesnt have to be executed quickly, and even with no Fog of War, the japs cant tell what the US is doing.
This fleet would have to be fairly large to avoid the possibility of Japan attacking it at Marianas. Japan is less likely to want to attack because the fighters and tacky’s stationed on Japan cannot help, and neither can the AC’s attack. If they did attack, the advantage would be to the US, although losing all the transports would blow. Without the US midway bombers assisting (because the US is not on the offensive this time), Japan would win, but it would be very costly to the japs, more so than if the US just attacked them from Hawaii, at least in my experience.
2/ I’ve been toying with the idea of sending the 4 ANZAC planes to support the British. The japs are unlikely to go after Australia before Britain.