Is an R1 attack on Germany's navy a good play?

[Bardoly]

In the '42 scenario, Russia MAY attack the German navy in sz5 with 1 fighter and 1 bombers versus 1 transport, 1 destroyer, and 1 cruiser.

I know that Russia is feeling the heat and could sure use the fighter and bomber elsewhere, but if the German navy can be knocked out, then it makes it easier for the UK.  Also, I’ve been hearing many people recomending a G1 naval buy (usually 1 carrier), but if Russia’s attack is successful, then I doubt that many people would buy naval units for Germany.

Tell me your thoughts on this specific attack.

[Funcioneta]

Potential loses are way greater than potential advantages. Germans can buy a navy even with a total success result (boats killed, both planes saved, germans buy AC,dd, 5 inf) so that’s not solved and you will do worse on land without the planes. Germans could ignore navy and abuse of plane-less soviets. And if you draw or lose, you are totally toasted

I’d say not unless you get HBs, and even then I’d think twice (but who would roll naval tech tree for USSR?)  :|

[Zhukov44]

The best reason to do it would be knocking out the transport in the interest of holding or eventually holding Karelia.  But Russia will suffer somewhat in other battles without air support.

It’s an interesting possibility…it would be nice to free up British air units to possibly go after another target.

It’s fairly risky dice-wise though… I don’t believe I would try it unless I had good reason to think Germany’s reaction would play out to my advantage.

[axis_roll]

@Zhukov44:

The best reason to do it would be knocking out the transport in the interest of holding or eventually holding Karelia.  But Russia will suffer somewhat in other battles without air support.

It’s an interesting possibility…it would be nice to free up British air units to possibly go after another target.

It’s fairly risky dice-wise though… I don’t believe I would try it unless I had good reason to think Germany’s reaction would play out to my advantage.

Well said, and I agree 100% with it.

Russia air craft are STILL the most important pieces in Axis & Allies.

[Butcher]

I think it is too great of a risk to put the Russian aircraft at, as I will agree with axis_roll that they are some of the most important units in the game. However, I don’t know of another good way to discourage a German Navy if that is your goal.

[a44bigdog]

I am leary of this one as well. Yes the Russians could kill the existing German fleet, which does possibly protect Karelia. On the other side of the coin, Russia has the potential to loose their valuable air units and Germany can simply buy some more ships. Buying a new navy for Germany is not a bad option for the Germans. I am of the opinion that Germany is better served by a Navy in the 42 scenario than just trying to grind down Russia with Armour. While a German navy may not have been the best strategy in previous editions of Axis and Allies, that does not necessary apply to AA50-42. It is a different game from those versions after all.

[axis_roll]

@a44bigdog:

I am leary of this one as well. Yes the Russians could kill the existing German fleet, which does possibly protect Karelia. On the other side of the coin, Russia has the potential to loose their valuable air units and Germany can simply buy some more ships. Buying a new navy for Germany is not a bad option for the Germans. I am of the opinion that Germany is better served by a Navy in the 42 scenario than just trying to grind down Russia with Armour. While a German navy may not have been the best strategy in previous editions of Axis and Allies, that does not necessary apply to AA50-42. It is a different game from those versions after all.

So, your opinion (and I agree with it) is that a German navy is a good move in 1942, but a russian pre-emptive strike probably does not deter this move for germany… again I agree.

in short, Russia should not risk their two planes on sz5 on R1 in 1942.

[a44bigdog]

Yep you got it axis_roll. I might consider it if I thought my opponent would not re-build the German fleet or if I was feeling rather aggressive. I just do not see much benefit at the moment from such an attack even if it is successful. It can possibly protect Karelia for a turn and it can reduce the number of ships in the Kriegsmarine if Germany rebuilds, but that is about all it does. And considering how valuable Russian aircraft are that is little gain for a lot of risk.

[drol nori]

I agree with all that has been said about how the russian aircraft are too valuable, and, looking ahead, taking out the German navy just encourages the German player to not buy a navy. Every IPC put toward a navy, at least in my opinion, is one not put towards the eastern front.
Plus, I cannot see another really good place to attack with the British aircraft R1 anyway, so why not use them to kill the fleet?

[axis_roll]

@drol:

I agree with all that has been said about how the russian aircraft are too valuable, and, looking ahead, taking out the German navy just encourages the German player to not buy a navy. Every IPC put toward a navy, at least in my opinion, is one not put towards the eastern front.

There is something to say about a German Navy in 1942.  This delays the allied fleet (can you say Germany can win the battle of the Atlantic?)  Well, not forever, the allies will eventually over power the German navy, but it can/will ? delay the allied help to Russia enough for Germany to overwhelm Russia.  Also, the navy might deter an India complex too.

@drol:

Plus, I cannot see another really good place to attack with the British aircraft R1 anyway, so why not use them to kill the fleet?

Well, I have seen the UK ftrs go to Africa/Gibralter and be a huge pain the the Italians very early in the game, enough to save Africa from ever falling.

[Funcioneta]

@axis_roll:

Also, the navy might deter an India complex too.

If India IC is a really bad idea in 1941, in 1942 is a must. If not built UK1, you can guess the game will enter in a 1941 dinamic with monster Japan and such, but with a two ICs Germany (Germany, Karelia). Ouch!

[chosen one]

if your succesful with the destruction of the primary british fleet a build for the germans that i like is 4 subs and a cv.for first turn build

[Zhukov44]

Speaking of R1 air attacks, does anybody like using the bomber to try to take out the destroyer/transport in SZ 13?  Seems like a nice body blow to Axis Med ambitions if it works, plus Germany has to divert a fighter on G1 to take out the bomber in Gibraltar.  Is it worth the risk?

[axis_roll]

@Zhukov44:

Speaking of R1 air attacks, does anybody like using the bomber to try to take out the destroyer/transport in SZ 13?  Seems like a nice body blow to Axis Med ambitions if it works, plus Germany has to divert a fighter on G1 to take out the bomber in Gibraltar.  Is it worth the risk?

well I have thought of this one too, but is it really that vital to the allied effort to take about a 57% chance of eliminating the German Med transport?  I think I like the power and range of the Russian bomber enough to keep it around longer than 1 battle.

But that’s me….

[U-505]

OK, so I ran the numbers on using the Russian bomber to attack sz13 on R1 and it roughly breaks down to this:

4 in 7 times (57%) the bomber wins and lands in Gibraltar.

2 in 7 times (28%) the bomber and DD destroy each other with the TP surviving.

1 in 7 times (14%) the bomber is destroyed with no kills.

The end result, among other things, is that it makes Germany avoid attacking sz2, thus saving the UK BB.

The goal of the Russian bomber attack isn’t so much to sink the German TP. The DD is the real target, because sinking it immediately puts the Italian fleet at risk. On G1, Germany HAS to destroy at least 2 of the 3 combined UK ships in sz12 and sz15 because, without the DD in sz13 blocking sz12, if 2 or 3 of the UK ships are available, the UK can attack sz14 with 1 or 2 DD, 1 CA, 1 Egypt fig, and the UK bmb which has a good shot at knocking out all of Italy’s warships if not also sinking the TP before Italy can even use them.

It should have no bearing on Germany’s plans to attack or not attack Egypt, whatsoever. Clearly, Germany attacking Egypt in 50-42’ on G1, sz13 DD or not, is a needless risk of units so the strategy of using the Russian bomber to attack sz13 would have to stand on the merits of the UK threat to the Italian fleet and the preservation of the sz2 fleet.

It is possible for Germany to attack both sz2 AND sz12 on G1 without the sz13 DD, but it’s fairly risky. At best, Germany could attack sz2 with the Norway fighter, sz7 and sz8 SS, and the Germany bomber which leaves the France and Germany fighters for sz12 and, for added security, the Bulgarian fighter for sz15. Sending almost all of Germany’s aircraft on coin flip battles is asking for trouble and doesn’t even guarantee the neccessary minimum 2 UK ships sunk so, essentially, Germany attacking sz2 if the sz13 DD is sunk is out of the question for most rational players and suicidal if the Russian bomber survives and a fighter or bomber is to be diverted to attack it.

And none of this takes into account the possibility that the Russian bomber(if it survives sz13) has a chance to kill a German aircraft before being destroyed or even surviving on the rare occasion.

Another benefit comes when the sz13 TP is also sunk with the DD. It makes an Egypt IC a definite possibility. Even more so if Germany doesn’t sink the DD in sz15 because Egypt can easily survive an attack by Italy with the DD blocking their bombardments, in a pinch the US can reinforce with 2 bombers before G2, most of Germany’s air force will be out of range for a G2 attack, and UK can get the Persian infantry and the Australian fighter to go with the UK2 build of 2 units before Italy gets a second attack. By UK 3, the 3 inf, 1 AA from India, the 1 inf, 1 art from SAF, Russian assistance, more allied aircraft, and probable Allied landings in Algeria would make it impregnable. For the most part, that would take Italy out of the game.

There are 2 downsides that I can see. One is obviously losing the Russian bomber. The second is a bit harder to determine. Is it in Germany’s best interest to attack sz2 no matter what, thereby making it potentially worthwhile to use the Russian bomber to attack sz13? If it isn’t, then there’s no point in sacrificing the bomber to prevent Germany from doing something they shouldn’t do anyway.

Basically it boils down to this: If attacking sz2 on G1 is an ideal move for Germany, are you, as the Russian player, comfortable with the 1 in 7 times that you will lose your bomber for nothing just for the opportunity to put Germany in a tougher opening spot and probably allow the UK to keep it’s sz2 fleet?

[axis_roll]

Good analysis U505, nice post.

---

In our 1942 games thus far, no one has ventured to deem the SZ2 naval attack as necessary by Germany.  There are other easier targets that put the german air force in much less danger, especially if Russia gets agressive or leaves several targets.

In both 1941 and 1942, I am finding an agressive russia is really a better use of Russia instead of building up inf defense, waiting for a strong Germany/Japan to eventually overwhelm you.  So along these lines, Russia forces Germanys hand to fight them, not really leaving much air to be used in a risky battle like SZ2.  My odds calc shows only 67% chance of winning 2 subs, ftr, bmr on the SZ2 fleet of tpt, sub, dd, BB.

I guess the reward might be worth the risk in SZ2 for Germany, but then I don’t think leaving a capital ship for UK necessarily will lose the game for Germany.

Oh course, we are still trying other strategies for 1942 scenario as we have only played 7 or so games.  Perhaps next game if I am the Axis, we’ll have to seriously consider that SZ2 battle.

[Zhukov44]

I agree with Axis_Roll on SZ2…  U-505’s deployment (all available planes to SZ 12 and SZ15) is nice…but even if all that works SZ2 is still a risk, as UK will have equal count and could catch some luck.  With the destroyer out of the game, I think you gotta rule out exposing all that air…  Still that deployment is worth a look if Russia doesn’t leave any juicier targets.  I haven’t done SZ2 yet because I like SZ 10…yes it’s probably a game design flaw but I can’t pass it up.  SZ9 ain’t bad either.

So returning to SZ13…it’s definitely true that the destroyer is a key fodder unit (I typically want it for SZ12) and that destroying it will help preserve the UK fleet.  But for me the main target is that transport for Africa (or, sometimes, Ukraine/Cauc)…if Allies can get that transport out then Germany will have a max of 4 land units in Africa.  It’s virtually impossible for UK Africa forces to defend against 6 land units plus air power…but with only 4 Krauts there, Allies can perhaps hope to make a stand if it can get the Italian fleet out of the game soon enough.

[gamerman01]

@Funcioneta:

Potential loses are way greater than potential advantages. Germans can buy a navy even with a total success result (boats killed, both planes saved, germans buy AC,dd, 5 inf) so that’s not solved and you will do worse on land without the planes. Germans could ignore navy and abuse of plane-less soviets. And if you draw or lose, you are totally toasted

I’d say not unless you get HBs, and even then I’d think twice (but who would roll naval tech tree for USSR?)  :|

To answer the last question - a person who would attack the German navy!  :lol:

I have to admit, I thought about it when I was new to AA50, but I would never do it now.

Even if you got heavy bombers, like Func pointed out, I wouldn’t risk it on the navy.  What if they got 2 hits and downed the heavy bomber anyway?
UK planes don’t have much better things to do in UK1 anyway.  But yes, a G1 carrier buy seems to be a great move, and I always do it.

[gamerman01]

@a44bigdog:

I am leary of this one as well. Yes the Russians could kill the existing German fleet, which does possibly protect Karelia. On the other side of the coin, Russia has the potential to loose their valuable air units and Germany can simply buy some more ships. Buying a new navy for Germany is not a bad option for the Germans. I am of the opinion that Germany is better served by a Navy in the 42 scenario than just trying to grind down Russia with Armour. While a German navy may not have been the best strategy in previous editions of Axis and Allies, that does not necessary apply to AA50-42. It is a different game from those versions after all.

Bigdog, I saw you making this point on these boards before, and I agreed with you.
I agree with you again.  I’m going to keep buying German navy in AA50 until I lose several times doing it.  It actually contributes really well to the Russian front, because I transport 4-6 ground units straight from Germany to Karelia each round many times.

[gamerman01]

@drol:

Every IPC put toward a navy, at least in my opinion, is one not put towards the eastern front.

That’s what it seems at first, but see my previous post.  German navy actually contributes greatly to the Eastern front.

Plus, I cannot see another really good place to attack with the British aircraft R1 anyway, so why not use them to kill the fleet?

Totally agree with you, man.