axis-dominion vs oysteilo (allies+12) bm3

[axis-dominion]

there’s the combat move FYI

[axis-dominion]

never mind, I got screwed over. went from a 40% avg tuv with 99% odds, to a -88 tuv in actuality.

gg

[axis-dominion]

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Germans round 5

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 5

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 2 artilleries, 10 infantry, 2 marines, 1 mech_infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Karelia to Novgorod
        1 infantry moved from Karelia to Novgorod
        1 mech_infantry moved from Ukraine to Rostov
        1 mech_infantry moved from Rostov to Bryansk
        10 armour, 5 artilleries, 19 infantry and 12 mech_infantrys moved from Ukraine to Bryansk
        3 artilleries, 2 bombers, 2 fighters, 5 infantry and 7 mech_infantrys moved from Western Ukraine to Bryansk
        2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Poland to Bryansk
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Greece to Bryansk
        4 bombers moved from Western Germany to Bryansk
        2 tactical_bombers moved from Romania to Bryansk

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Novgorod
            Germans attack with 1 artillery and 6 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 airfield, 1 factory_minor, 1 harbour and 2 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 6 infantry in Novgorod, round 2 : 1/7 hits, 1.50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in Novgorod, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians and 2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Novgorod
                Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 4 infantry in Novgorod, round 3 : 1/5 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Novgorod, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Novgorod
            Germans win, taking Novgorod from Russians with 1 artillery and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
            Casualties for Germans: 3 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 2 infantry
        Battle in Bryansk
            Germans attack with 10 armour, 8 artilleries, 6 bombers, 4 fighters, 24 infantry, 20 mech_infantrys and 5 tactical_bombers
            Russians defend with 4 aaGuns, 3 artilleries, 2 fighters, 59 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                AA fire in Bryansk : 5/12 hits, 2.00 expected hits
                2 fighters owned by the Germans and 3 tactical_bombers owned by the Germans lost in Bryansk
                Germans roll dice for 10 armour, 8 artilleries, 6 bombers, 2 fighters, 24 infantry, 20 mech_infantrys and 2 tactical_bombers in Bryansk, round 2 : 20/72 hits, 22.67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 4 aaGuns, 3 artilleries, 2 fighters, 59 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Bryansk, round 2 : 20/65 hits, 22.50 expected hits
                16 infantry owned by the Russians, 20 infantry owned by the Germans and 4 aaGuns owned by the Russians lost in Bryansk
                Germans roll dice for 10 armour, 8 artilleries, 6 bombers, 2 fighters, 4 infantry, 20 mech_infantrys and 2 tactical_bombers in Bryansk, round 3 : 14/52 hits, 19.33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 artilleries, 2 fighters, 43 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Bryansk, round 3 : 16/49 hits, 17.17 expected hits
                14 infantry owned by the Russians, 4 infantry owned by the Germans and 12 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans lost in Bryansk
                Germans roll dice for 10 armour, 8 artilleries, 6 bombers, 2 fighters, 8 mech_infantrys and 2 tactical_bombers in Bryansk, round 4 : 20/36 hits, 16.67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 artilleries, 2 fighters, 29 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Bryansk, round 4 : 15/35 hits, 12.50 expected hits
                20 infantry owned by the Russians, 7 artilleries owned by the Germans and 8 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans lost in Bryansk
                Germans roll dice for 10 armour, 1 artillery, 6 bombers, 2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers in Bryansk, round 5 : 10/21 hits, 11.67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 artilleries, 2 fighters, 9 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Bryansk, round 5 : 10/15 hits, 5.83 expected hits
                9 infantry owned by the Russians, 1 artillery owned by the Russians, 1 artillery owned by the Germans and 9 armour owned by the Germans lost in Bryansk
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 6 bombers, 2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers in Bryansk, round 6 : 10/11 hits, 6.83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 2 artilleries, 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber in Bryansk, round 6 : 4/5 hits, 2.50 expected hits
                1 tactical_bomber owned by the Russians, 2 fighters owned by the Russians, 2 artilleries owned by the Russians, 2 fighters owned by the Germans, 1 armour owned by the Germans and 1 tactical_bomber owned by the Germans lost in Bryansk
            Germans win with 6 bombers and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is -88
            Casualties for Germans: 10 armour, 8 artilleries, 4 fighters, 24 infantry, 20 mech_infantrys and 4 tactical_bombers
            Casualties for Russians: 4 aaGuns, 3 artilleries, 2 fighters, 59 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber

    Non Combat Move - Germans

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : -3.83
AA fire in Bryansk : : 3.00
Russians : 6.50

Savegame

[axis-dominion]

sorry, I meant 40 avg tuv to -88 actual

[oysteilo]

omg… by a lot

[axis-dominion]

@oysteilo said in axis-dominion vs oysteilo (allies+12) bm3:

omg… by a lot

yah after I saw the aaa, I was too blinded with anger to even consider a retreat. I just clicked the buttons in rage haha

it happens, life is too short to dwell on such things. congrats on your gift from Marti the mother goddess of madness

[axis-dominion]

Karl does the same shit to me, gives me impossibly good odds I can’t resist, then I get fucked lol

[oysteilo]

@axis-dominion i will look at it in some details later. Dont want to give you 1000 knieves in hart on this. but I think it raises som questions though

[axis-dominion]

@oysteilo said in axis-dominion vs oysteilo (allies+12) bm3:

@axis-dominion i will look at it in some details later. Dont want to give you 1000 knieves in hart on this. but I think it raises som questions though

Could I have gone for a safer option? Yes of course, I could’ve easily gone for the money fields and held a Very strong axis position. But

1. Less fun, less exciting, been there done that = boring. For me it’s not just about winning. I have too many wins to care only for that.
2. It’s a matter of principle… can’t let my opponent just boldly give me almost 100% odds and get away with it. It’d show I’m too weak and soon you’ll be taking advantage of that. So I’ll go for it every time.
3. To me it’s still just a game at the end of the day. There is thrill in the dice, and the basis of that thrill is that things could go horribly wrong. Or else it would be a fun thrilling dice game.

[axis-dominion]

@axis-dominion said in axis-dominion vs oysteilo (allies+12) bm3:

@oysteilo said in axis-dominion vs oysteilo (allies+12) bm3:

@axis-dominion i will look at it in some details later. Dont want to give you 1000 knieves in hart on this. but I think it raises som questions though

Could I have gone for a safer option? Yes of course, I could’ve easily gone for the money fields and held a Very strong axis position. But

1. Less fun, less exciting, been there done that = boring. For me it’s not just about winning. I have too many wins to care only for that.
2. It’s a matter of principle… can’t let my opponent just boldly give me almost 100% odds and get away with it. It’d show I’m too weak and soon you’ll be taking advantage of that. So I’ll go for it every time.
3. To me it’s still just a game at the end of the day. There is thrill in the dice, and the basis of that thrill is that things could go horribly wrong. Or else it would be a fun thrilling dice game.

It wouldn’t* be

[simon33]

Are you sure this was fatal? USSR still has few units. You still cleared Bryansk - just at a disagreeable cost. There are a few things on the map to be concerned about though.

FWIW, I totally agree that you couldn’t refuse the attack there for all the reasons you go into.

[oysteilo]

from my point… I agree that AD is doing the right thing, most likely I would have done the same thing too

Also it is an attempt to go off the established moves to create something different, like AD says In many ways it is win or break for the winner/looser and I think that is to MY advantage as I consider AD a (much) better player than I am. I feel I let AD take the risk, as he has NOT to accept the challange

From my point I think the odds are fooling you. I run the battle and the average is like 10 arm and 3 arty remaining pluss a bunch of planes. That is a great result for the axis. however, if you score below average (which is 50% odds for) you are very soon in trouble. In round 1 I kill pretty much all your inf in a normal outcome and then you are suddenly just left with a few armor

The actual result is off course much wores, and even a much better result for me would be decent. (I think). Even an average result is not that bad.

[oysteilo]

Again, I just want to say and admit again I am luck here.