As for your numbers:
You have 1 transport too many in your defense force. That’s just the most obvious difference. You are losing one in SZ 7 and using one to block in SZ 12.
Also, you have mentioned that America was going to Algeria, but many of the others, have mentioned that America only goes to England. Thus I did not disregard your post of America in Algeria, I just went with the majority of the people who are arguing.
Anyway, I have adjusted the plan ever so slightly. The German fleet in SZ 5 goes to SZ 6. This prevents the unification of the Allied fleets if the British bring the Battleship to the battle while still maintaining the same threat as before.
I believe you missed that in your haste to respond. It’s okay, I do it sometimes too. But I wanted to remind you of the change. This would change your battle statistics signficantly.
We are now talking (at best):
2 Fighters, 1 Destroyer, 1 Battleship, 1 Carrier, 3 Transports (assuming you block SZ 13 as stated), 2 submarines (assuming England purchased 1 Carrier, 1 Submarine on UK 1)
To combat that we have:
1 Transport (Fodder), 1 Destroyer, 3 Submarines (1 from SZ 13, 2 from SZ 6), 5 Fighters (starting fighters that landed in W. Europe on Germany 1) and 2 Bombers (1 purchased on Germany 1.)
This gives: 81% chance attacker survives, 17% chance defender survives. If attacker survives, odds are great that the attacker will have 2 fighters, 2 bombers left. If defender survives, obviously, we are talking a damaged battleship.
Now, okay, “but what if I buy a destroyer and a carrier on UK 1 and unite the fleet?”
That’s:
Defender: 3 Transports, Submarine, 2 Destroyers, Carrier, Battleship, 2 Fighters (20%)
vs
Attacker: Transport, 3 Submarines, Destroyer, 5 Fighters, 2 Bombers (77% - Fighter, 2 Bombers)
The added benefit to this arrangement is that England is ensnared into making decisions that most players do not make on any given game day.
England can do the following:
1) Attack SZ 6 with air and sea and be stranded without American defensive support
2) Attack SZ 6 with just air and hope the dice don’t go bad. (Seems like the dice go bad in that battle more often then good, at least for England. I dunno why, it’s 68% odds in attacker’s favor (though that’s to have the bomber survive).)
3) Leave SZ 6 alone, unite the fleets in SZ 8 and hope to get above average dice on the defense - but run the risk of the attacker retreating the instant your carrier is sunk to save money.
None of the three options makes me happy. Many people will opt for option 2. It’s a pretty standard move when a carrier is NOT purchased for the SZ 5 fleet. However, there are a growing number of people who are more likely to use the money on that carrier for something else and trust that England will chicken out of the SZ 5 attack, or the dice will edge slightly (or more then slightly) in their favor on defense.
Do note, however, the defender OOL when Germany defends against Air Power Attack only is Submarine, Submarine, Transport, Destroyer thus giving them the best possible chances to kill off enemy planes.
And yes, I have a counter in mind. I actually have two of them. I think they are pretty effective, I just won’t post them until I iron out the axis side first. :P